NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 9: Opening Line Report

Week 8 was smooth sailing for NFL Survivor Pools. Even though I am out of my pool, none of the seven left out of more than 200 starting were wiped out this week. And the choices they made were pretty diverse. All the big favorites covered. I am writing this blog in advance of the Monday Night Football matchup between Denver and Kansas City, where the Chiefs are a seven-point favorite, and I expect the Chiefs to take care of business even though most NFL Survivor Pool contestants had likely used them previously.

I said it last week and I’ll say it again; those that survive the early-season purge and make it to Week 7 or 8 in NFL Survivor Pools are normally in great shape to last until late in the season. At this point in the season the pretenders have been separated from the real contenders, and we have a pretty good idea of what each team is at this point of the season. Widespread early in the season were notions the Jets might not win a game this season and that the Patriots might not lose one. But now at this point in 2017 NFL campaign we know that the Jets are not anywhere near the worst team in the league and that even the best teams have some chinks in their armor.

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Every week here on SurvivorPoolPicks.com I will go down the list of the biggest favorites on my Survivor Pool Opening Line Report. I like to see what the lines are and then eliminate the teams that I am not interested in picking. When I have my list whittled down to 2-4 teams then I do further research in order to formulate my picks for the week.

Week 9 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Opening Lines

Buffalo -3 at NY Jets (Thursday): The Bills have surprised at 5-2 to start the season and they are coming off an absolute blowout of the Raiders at home. I normally only cover favorites of more than three points in this space, but I wanted to touch on this game as some might consider playing Buffalo here. I would advise against that. The Bills, even though they beat New York in the season opener, are 1-2 on the road and their offense has not looked good away from upstate NY.  These quick turnaround games also normally favor the home team, and the short week of preparation can even the divide between the underdog and the favorite.

Philadelphia -7 vs. Denver: The Broncos are about to suit up for their Monday Night Football game at the Chiefs, and I don’t expect that to go well for them. This line is off the board at most sportsbooks right now. If Denver gets blown out then this line may open up at 8 or 9. It would be hard to argue with that number. Philly has looked like the best team in the NFL for most of the season, and Denver will be coming in on a short week and probably with their QB controversy continuing to fester. This doesn’t look like a good spot for the Broncos. However, if they lose at KC they might be playing for their season here and you do get the feeling the Eagles are a tad overrated. This matchup would definitely go into the potential pool for Week 9 Survivor Pool picks, but most have used the Eagles already.

LA Rams -3.5 at NY Giants: The Rams certainly look legit. Jared Goff has improved immensely in his second year under center and Todd Gurley is developing into the weapon that everyone expected him to be when he was drafted. But I sure don’t like this game from a Survivor Pool perspective. For one, I still don’t want to take road teams if avoidable at this point of the season as there are going to still be some attractive home teams you can use each week. I said a couple weeks ago that I don’t think that the Giants fit among the list of worst teams in the league and this team still has some fight left in them along with some talent on the field. They responded after I wrote that with a big win at Denver but then regressed the following week vs. Seattle. I just think this is a dangerous matchup and will stay away. All that being said, I do think the Rams will pull out a close one here.

New Orleans -7 vs. Tampa Bay: The Tampa Bay Bucs have mystified me this season. I really thought they would take a step forward after barely missing the postseason last year. But they have looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL during their current four-game losing streak. They managed only three points on Sunday – at home, no less – against Carolina. QB Jameis Winston is playing through an injury and he just doesn’t seem right. However, there is always one team that starts off the season really slowly and then comes on big time during the second half. That could be Tampa Bay this season if Winston can improve. I am also not convinced that the Saints are as good as they have looked so far. The Saints should win here, but this one makes me nervous. This is a real must-win game for the visitors.

Jacksonville -5 vs. Cincinnati: I feel more confident about the Jags here than some of the bigger favorites. Jacksonville is coming off their bye and they have won two of their last three, including a blowout win at Pittsburgh. The Bengals barely got by the Colts, one of the worst teams in the league, at home last week as 11-point favorites. Their win at home against Buffalo was their only really quality win this season, and I think there’s a good chance that the Jags steamroll them here in Week 9.

Houston -13 vs. Indianapolis: This is not only the biggest spread for the week, but this matchup is the top NFL Survivor Pool pick for Week 9 hands down. And the great thing is that most competitors probably haven’t used the Texans yet. I really like this Houston team. They lost J.J. Watt for the season, but this squad still has a lot of talent all around and now they have what they have been missing for years, a capable QB. Deshaun Watson has been a total stud for this team as a rookie and might be the next big thing among NFL QBs. They lost a heartbreaker last week at Seattle, and I think they will be ultra motivated to get back on track against one of the dregs of the NFL.

Seattle -7 vs. Washington: The Seahawks should win here. But I think the Redskins are better than they have played the last couple weeks and this team is due a win. Seattle is not as good as they have been the last couple years. I like the Redskins plus the points here and I think that this could very well be a close game. I would not use the Seahawks this week in Survivor Pools, and I think that Houston, and even Jacksonville, are much better choices.