NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 8: Opening Line Report

This has been a crazy season for NFL Survivor Pool players. Those that have managed to stay alive through six weeks or those that joined second-chance pools got treated to a pretty easy week in NFL Week 7. On paper this looked like one of the toughest weeks in the last couple years with no clear favorites on the betting board. This, of course, is as of Monday afternoon because one of the other biggest favorites, the Philadelphia Eagles, host the Washington Redskins tonight on Monday Night Football. But the other three big favorites – Minnesota (-5.5), Tennessee (-6) and Dallas (-6.5) – all won on Sunday.

This just goes to show how tough the early season is to navigate in Survivor Pools. I always find that when I survive to Week 6 or 7 that normally it is smooth sailing to the end of the season as you get a better idea of what teams are and many overrated teams (I’m looking at you, Atlanta!) have been exposed by this point. So here’s hoping that is the case for you as well if you are still alive in your NFL Survivor Pool!

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Here in this spot each week I will go over the biggest favorites on the NFL betting board. I will give my analysis on each matchup (normally on favorites of three or more points) and tell the readers whether I think that team is a viable NFL Survivor Pool pick for the week. In the next day or two we will release our NFL Confidence Pool picks, which will rank each matchup, among two expert NFL handicappers, with no point spread (these straight up winners are a good guide to use for your Survivor Pool picks). I like to do this as my first exercise of the week and then from the pool of teams I am interested in I do further research in order to come up with my weekly pool picks.

Week 8 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Opening Lines

Minnesota -9.5 at Cleveland (London): I normally tell people to stay away from these international games because the extra travel and change of normal routine for the players can even the playing field between the favorite and underdog. However, I think the Vikings are a very solid pick this week. The Browns are just a mess. They had a great chance for a win on Sunday but fell in OT to the struggling Titans. A good team might be able to bounce back from that heartbreak, but I get the feeling that this trip to London is the last thing this team needs right now and I’ll bet they mail this one in and try to regroup during their Week 9 bye.

New Orleans -9 vs. Chicago: The Saints are looking like one of the best teams in the NFL in winning four straight, all in blowout fashion. The Bears, however, are a scary team to go against. They have won two straight, and the team seems to be fully behind rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky. Not only have they been strong the last two games, but they beat the Steelers and also took the Falcons to the wire earlier in the season. I just don’t see the Bears as being competitive in this game with the way the Saints offense is rolling right now. I do like the Minnesota pick better than this one on first look, but I do think that this is a very solid pick as well.

Atlanta -4 at New York Jets: This matchup doesn’t feature a big favorite like the two others we previewed, but I do think that this is another solid pick. And it’s most likely that those that are still alive in their Survivor Pool still have Atlanta available because most people that used them already are out of the competition as a result. New York, as I have stated in previous articles, is a blue-collar team that is getting by on hard play, solid coaching and a “team” attitude. But they really don’t have a lot of talent. And the Falcons are basically almost in a must-win situation here. Three straight losses looks bad, but two of those games were close and at least Buffalo has shown they are a decent team. They kind of ran into a buzzsaw on Sunday night at New England. I am willing to bet this team gets back on track in a big way against an inferior opponent on Sunday.

Philadelphia (off the board) vs. San Francisco: I like the way this Niners team has played as most consider them one of the worst squads in the league. They aren’t very good, but they have been extremely competitive (at least until Sunday when they were blown out at home against Dallas in a game where I thought they might have upset potential). As I write this Philly is gearing up for their Monday MNF matchup with Washington. If they get out of that one injury free then they might be a good pick this week. But they will be coming into this one on a short week, and although I really like the Eagles this year I don’t think they are one of the top 3 or 4 teams in the league and I suspect they might see their share of struggles this season (I think this is a playoff team but not a Super Bowl contender). I do think the Niners will win a couple and pull a couple upsets before Week 17. And because of that I might be fearful of playing against them here. If the Eagles look good tonight and come out of the game healthy, they will probably be the biggest favorite on the board for Week 8.

Cincinnati -10 vs. Indianapolis: Yuck. I don’t like either of these teams (especially not the Colts) but don’t know if I can justify this big line here, and that thought is underscored by the pitiful, listless performance the Bengals put forth against the Steelers on Sunday. Should Cincinnati win on Sunday? Of course; they are the much better team. But then again I thought the Colts had a good chance to be winless until Andrew Luck returned, and they have put together a couple real scrappy upset performances. I would advise to use the Bengals this week only if the other big favorites are off the board for you. Personally, I will be betting the Colts plus the points in this one.

New England -7 vs. LA Chargers: After a slow start it looks like the Patriots are back in business after just embarrassing the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night. That much-maligned defense looked great in the winning effort. Many times really good teams like this one struggle early in the season and then turn it on late (see Green Bay in 2016). After seeing what I saw on Sunday with the Patriots, I would give them my stamp of approval for Week 8 NFL Survivor Pool picks, and that’s despite the fact that the Chargers have won three straight. But I do think that Minnesota, New Orleans and Atlanta are all better picks for the week.

Seattle -5.5 vs. Houston: This is another one I would stay away from. The Seahawks have also won three straight, but the level of competition in those games was pretty low. This is the toughest opponent they will have faced since their winning streak started. The Texans are also coming off their bye, and this is another underdog bet that looks very attractive to me. I don’t think the Hawks are as good as they were in their heyday, and they are a tough team to trust, especially against a quality opponent.

Kansas City -7.5 vs. Denver: I have to admit I am surprised that this line came out so large after the Chiefs have lost two straight and especially since Kansas City gave up 500+ yards of offense to the Raiders on Thursday. But I do think the Chiefs will win this one handily. They are going to be mad after blowing that game on Thursday and they had extra time to prepare for this one while the Broncos were busy being exposed by the Chargers on Sunday in a big blowout loss. After the game Denver LB Von Miller said that the Broncos now had to play the best team in the NFL, and I think the Chiefs play aggressively in this one and try to jump all over their AFC West rival early. I normally try and stay away from division games for Survivor Pool picks, but I have a real good feeling about the home team in this matchup.