NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 3: Opening Line Report

I stated last week that Week 2 would be one of the easiest weeks of the year for NFL Survivor Pools if you just picked the Oakland Raiders, which I did on both of my cards, and they won easily at home against the New York Jets, 45-20. It turned out to be an easy week no matter which team you took as most of the decent-sized favorites won. Week 3, however, looks much trickier.

Every week on Monday or Tuesday I will give a rundown on my thoughts on the NFL opening lines and what I think of the favored teams’ chances for winning on that particular week. Mostly I will comment on teams that are favored by more than three points as favorites of 3.0 normally win at a rate not much better than that of a coin flip.

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Once again this looks like a real tough weekend for NFL Survivor Pool picks. New England looks like a cut above the rest of the picks, but as someone that had a big stake in them Week 1 vs. the Chiefs I have to say I am a bit hesitant with this team. Yes, Kansas City is a very good team, but something didn’t seem right with the Pats, and their big win at New Orleans on Sunday didn’t do enough to quell those nervous feelings. With a lack of a better No. 2 option, however, I will probably end up going with New England. They will be the overwhelming most popular choice in Survivor Pools this week.

Week 3 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Opening Lines

Baltimore -4 “at” Jacksonville (London): I think these are two of the most volatile teams in the NFL right now – teams that could look great one week and then stink it up the next. And the fact that this game is an international game is another red flag. The extra travel combined with the players being removed from their normal routine brings about too many distractions, and I think that evens things out more for the underdog in some situations. And the underdog in this scenario might have an extra advantage since they play in these types of games almost every year. This one is an easy pass.

Pittsburgh -7.5 at Chicago: The Steelers looked really good Week 2 in dismantling a Vikings team that played well in a Week 1 win. But this team looked just average in Week 1 on the road at Cleveland, where they won by only three. This Pittsburgh team tends to look great at home and mediocre on the road, and this Bears squad is probably a little better than the Browns, so this is a game I am very wary of using for my Week 3 pick. One advantage of using the Steelers if you still have them available is that many used them in Week 1, so they will be unavailable to many competitors. I try and stay away from road teams early in the season, so the Steelers aren’t a real viable option for me anyways even though they are available on one card for me.

Miami -6 at New York Jets: The Jets are everyone’s favorite fade team in 2017. They have looked pretty bad through the first two weeks, so maybe this is a great strategy to just ride through the season to Survivor Pool glory. This is too risky for me, however, and I am going to look for a better option. If the Jets were to win two or three games this year it would not shock me for this to be one of them. This is one of their two or three most winnable home games this season, and if they do notch a couple wins they will probably come at home.

New England -13 vs. Houston: This looks like the best of the bunch for Week 3 NFL Survivor Pool picks. But this one also makes me nervous. The Pats looked good in Week 2, but that was against a horrible defense in the Saints, and they will face a much better defensive squad here on Sunday. The Texans are starting a rookie QB in Deshaun Watson, and that is a big advantage for the home team here. Brady looked like his old self last weekend, but he was very shaky in the Week 1 loss to the Chiefs. I will probably use the Pats on at least one card this week just because there aren’t a lot of better options out there. I do think this one will be closer than the spread would indicate.

Carolina -5.5 vs. New Orleans: The Panthers have allowed a grand total of six points on defense thus far through two games. That’s the good news. The bad news is that they have scored only 32, including a nine-point effort Sunday vs. Buffalo. They are going to have to do better than that on offense to stop Drew Brees and Co. on Sunday, and they probably aren’t going to be able to hold these guys to three points. The Panthers were a team I was very concerned about heading into the season after their lackluster 2016, and after playing the Niners and Bills I think it’s too early to say this team is back despite the 2-0 start.

Atlanta at Detroit (Off the Board): As I write this the line for this Week 3 matchup is off the board. Detroit is about to take on the Giants on Monday Night Football, hence the reason for no line. It’s safe to say the Falcons will be a favorite of three or more points here. Detroit will be coming in on a short week, and Atlanta has looked really good through two weeks. This is a possible pick for me, although I do think the Falcons might struggle to reach their 2016 status and also this game puts me off because it’s another road contest. I do think the Falcons have a good chance to win this game, however.

Green Bay -9 vs. Cincinnati: At first glance this looked like the Week 3 pick for me. However, some things have me nervous here. Green Bay looked awful Sunday night in their blowout loss to Atlanta, and the final score was even more flattering than the actual result since the Packers rallied in garbage time. Green Bay has a banged-up WR corps, and this team has a history of slow starts the last few years. Cincinnati looks like a bad team this season. But I also think they will go all out to avoid a 0-3 start. I think I just talked myself out of using this play. This will probably be a very popular pick for Week 3, especially for those that want to save the Patriots.

So besides the Patriots, who I am very lukewarm on this week, there’s not much out there to get excited about. After a pretty straightforward start to the season, this looks like the week that will put a lot of Survivor Pool competitors in danger. I’m going to do some more research throughout the week, but I am pretty sure I will use the Patriots and then look for an off-the-radar pick on my second card. Time to put those handicapping skills to use this week! I will comment on my picks on Thursday in our Official Picks article even though I was bounced in Week 1. But our other experts will have their full cards on Thursday as well.