Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Pros and Cons for Top Three Matchups

Here we are on Labor Day weekend, and the NFL season has officially started with the first game taking place on Thursday when the Chiefs visit the Patriots. It’s now time to dive headfirst into our Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool picks in order to make the best and safest selections this week.

According to our weekly poll, located on the left side of this article, there are three main matchups that are the most popular Week 1 picks. As of this writing, Buffalo, hosting the Jets, looks like the most popular pick with almost 34 percent of the vote for Week 1. Pittsburgh at Cleveland is next with almost 32 percent, and then the distant third choice is New England vs. Kansas City on Thursday with almost 18 percent of the votes. No other team has more than 7 percent of the vote. Even though we expect many more votes before the games start this weekend, we expect these percentages to stay consistent.

As I wrote in my NFL Survivor Pool picks Week 1 Opening Line Report, the Patriots are my clear-cut top pick for the first week of the season. I play multiple cards in my Survivor Pools, and I’m pretty sure that I will use them on all my cards. Yes, it’s tough to use them Week 1 and then not have the NFL’s best team available to me the rest of the season, but I never save teams and I use the best pick that I think will give me the best chance to advance for that week.

However, It’s always good to weigh the pros and cons of each matchup. I think the “Big 3” this week are all pretty solid picks even though I think the Pats have the best chance to win. So here I will give some pros and cons for all three of these top matchups. The early season in Survivor Pools is always harrowing as teams don’t often follow pattern from year to year. A big chunk of most Survivor Pools will be bounced by Week 6, so it’s of the utmost importance to do your homework in order to make the best picks as you don’t want to be one of those whose season ends in the first couple months of the season.

Here I will give some pros and cons for these Top 3 NFL Survivor Pool matchups for Week 1. Even though I like the Patriots this week, I always keep an open mind until the point where I submit my picks, and nothing is set in stone until the deadline!

Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Pros and Cons for Top 3 Matchups

New England vs. Kansas City (Thursday, 8:30 p.m. EST)

I normally stay away from Thursday night games when making my weekly Survivor Pool picks. I think that the short turnaround during the season makes the playing field more even for the underdog. We don’t have to worry about that this week, however, since both teams will be fresh here.

Pros:

–New England is the defending Super Bowl champ and on paper they are even better than last season.

–The Patriots were 14-2 last season. They may not win that many games again this year, but they won’t lose many, especially at home.

–The line for this game opened at Patriots -7.0, and early wagering moved the line as high as 9.0 until it settled at its current number of 8.0. Most general bettors don’t bet until the week of the game, so this is a good indication that sharp bettors have backed the favorite.

–New England has the best QB and best coach in football. And they have had extra time to prepare for this game.

–The Patriots have won six of the last eight matchups between these two teams.

–The defending Super Bowl champ has never lost a Thursday Opening Kickoff game.

–New England has the confidence of the oddsmakers, who gave them the best Super Bowl odds and the highest season win total.

–New England probably won’t be a very popular pick, so if you pick them and they win on Thursday then you will have fun rooting for upsets on Sunday.

Cons:

–The Chiefs were 12-4 last season and are considered a Super Bowl contender this year.

–New England lost their star WR, Julian Edelman, for the season in the third week of the preseason.

–Tom Brady turned 40 years old in the offseason and at some point will start slowing down.

–Kansas City was 6-2 on the road last season.

–The Chiefs have an opportunistic defense and strong special teams, and both can produce points beyond traditional offense.

–Both of New England’s losses in 2016 were at home.

–Using New England against one of the best teams in the AFC is risky, and once you use them you won’t have one of the NFL’s best teams available to you for the rest of the season.

Buffalo vs. New York Jets (1 p.m. EST, Sunday)

By the current numbers this is the most popular pick for Week 1 according to the poll on our blog. The Jets are widely considered the worst team in the NFL this year – think the Cleveland Browns of 2016 – and will be everyone’s favorite fade team. While I think the Bills will win, I just can’t justify using such a bad team this early in the season. Heck, this game could go a long way into determining the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft if the Bills are even worse than I expect. Buffalo is probably good for 4-7 wins. If they play way above expectations then I will gladly chance my stance on them, but for now I just will not be picking a bad team like this, no matter who the opponent is. I will be fading the Jets plenty this year, but I will never fade a team blindly like this.

Pros:

–The Jets are considered by far the worst team in the league. They have the lowest season win total from the bookies, and many think they will tank the season in order to have a chance to pick up one of the great QBs in the 2018 draft class.

–New York may not win a road game all season.

–At -9.5, the Bills are the biggest favorite on the board for Week 1.

–Buffalo has won five of the last seven matchups.

–The Bills will have matchup advantages all over the field.

–This will be probably the one and only time to consider taking Buffalo this season, so if they win and you advance you will already have a leg up on the competition that used a better team for Week 1.

Cons:

–This is a risky play taking a bad team like the Bills in Week 1. Las Vegas sportsbooks gave the Bills a win total of 6.0 for the season, while the Jets aren’t much worse with a win total of 4.0.

–Buffalo lost four home games last season and are widely considered to be a worse team this year.

–The media talks nonstop about how bad the Jets will be this season, but we don’t know this as a fact until we see them play a couple games on the field.

–Despite a 2-5 record in the last seven meetings, the Jets have won the last two matchups.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1 p.m. EST, Sunday)

The Browns have been the Gold Standard for fade teams the last couple of years. You could go against them almost every week and advance in your NFL Survivor Pool. Their 1-15 2016 season was legendary for all the wrong reasons. However, I do think this team will be better this year, and I think they are good for between 3-6 wins so this is not an automatic fade team for me. However, I am considering possibly using the Steelers on one of my Week 1 cards as I think they are the clear second-best choice this week.

Pros:

–The Steelers are one of the best teams in the AFC, if not the entire NFL, with a veteran QB that has Super Bowl aspirations. Cleveland is coming off one of the worst seasons in NFL history and won only one game last year.

–Pittsburgh has won eight of the last nine matchups between these teams.

–Las Vegas gives the Steelers a season win total of 10.5, while the Browns have a win total of 4.5.

–If the Browns see any improvement on their record this season it will likely be later in the year.

–The Steelers know the importance of getting a win Week 1 and getting a positive start to the season.

–This is the second biggest line on the board for Week 1, which will give extra confidence to Survivor Pool players.

–Cleveland will start a rookie QB under center.

Cons:

–Pittsburgh is on the road here, and teams don’t always play to their potential in road matchups.

–The Browns have nowhere to go but up. They won’t have a lot of pressure here but should play hard to set the tone for 2017.

–Cleveland has had ample time to adopt a gameplan to match up with the Steelers.

–It’s always tough to justify using a good team like Pittsburgh on the road in Week 1.