NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 14: Opening Line Report

Several weeks ago my NFL Survivor Pool was whittled down to 12 players, including myself. Now we enter Week 14 and there are still 12 players alive in my pool! It’s very frustrating as I have made some solid picks, but the chalk has pretty much taken care of business. Unless the Browns suddenly start a winning streak there are going to be a handful of people likely to make it through Week 17, and several will be splitting the prize. I plan to be one of them, so it’s imperative to make the best picks possible down the stretch.

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The first thing that I do when formulating my NFL Survivor Pool picks for the week is to look at the opening lines. The lines are not gospel. Oddsmakers make mistakes all the time, and they don’t even set their odds according to how they think the games will play out but instead based on the betting patterns of their clients. But I do look at the lines to see which teams are favored and which ones are favored by a lot of points. I use these lines to pare down the list of teams to 2-5 that I will be considering taking for the week. At that point I do further research on those matchups.

NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 14 Opening Line Report

Kansas City -3 vs. Oakland (Thursday): I have already used the Chiefs for my NFL Survivor Pool. Actually I used them last time these teams met up in Oakland in a rare time I picked a favorite of less than three points. I really like Kansas City to win this game and would definitely consider using them if I had them available. The Chiefs have dominated the AFC West and Oakland in particular, and although the Raiders have been playing great I do think this squad has been playing a bit over their heads. They should come crashing back down to earth on Thursday.

Indianapolis -6 vs. Houston: Although I like the Lions better than the Colts this week, this would probably be my second choice of the teams I have available. The Texans have lost three straight and they are nose-diving right out of playoff contention while Indy has won three of four and is coming off a huge road win on Monday Night Football. They have a huge advantage at QB and have all the momentum in this one.

Cincinnati -6 at Cleveland: The Browns come in off the bye and I am pretty confident that they will get their first win here. Cincinnati is having their worst season in years, Andy Dalton isn’t playing with any confidence, and No. 1 WR A. J. Green is out. I would like the Browns even more with Cody Kessler at QB, but it looks like Robert Griffin III will start here. It’s so hard to go winless in the NFL, and I think all these players for the Browns will play with a lot of pride here as nobody wants to be associated with a 0-16 team for the rest of their lives.

Detroit -7.5 vs. Chicago: This is the biggest favorite on the board for Week 14, and this will be my NFL Survivor Pool pick for the week. Detroit has won seven of their last eight games, and this team is really playing well under the radar right now. This line should probably be even larger. I also like the fact that the Bears won last week, so that probably decreases their will to win in this one. They know they are a bad and injury-ravaged team, so that win last week is probably good enough to rest on their laurels a bit. Detroit worries me because they have trailed in the fourth quarter so much this season, but good teams find a way to win, and I feel they will get another W in the win column on Sunday.

Minnesota -3.5 at Jacksonville: The Vikings are probably a team not many people have used thus far. They dealt with some major injuries at the start of the season so Survivor Pool players stayed away during their 5-0 start. Then anyone who got on the bandwagon after that was probably knocked out of their pool. Jacksonville is a really bad team with a lame-duck coach of their own, and they will probably lose this one. But the Vikings are a team I am not even considering this week as I just can’t trust that lousy offense on the road.

Atlanta -6 at Los Angeles: I have already used the Falcons but if I hadn’t I would have them on my list of possibilities for Week 14. They lost a heartbreaker last week at home to the Chiefs, and I think they will give their best effort as a result here. Los Angeles seems to have thrown in the towel on their season now that they have finally decided to start Jared Goff. I don’t think he will be able to keep pace with Matt Ryan and the explosive Atlanta offense, so the Rams will need a big defensive day to stay competitive here.

New England -7 vs. Baltimore: The Pats are long gone for me and everyone else in my Survivor Pool. If you still have them available then I would advise to keep them in your back pocket for another week. The Ravens are playing excellent football and I just think this game will be closer than the oddsmakers indicate.