NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 9: Opening Line Report

Here is what I posted on Twitter Monday morning: “Zero notable upsets on Sunday for Week 8 NFL Survivor Pool players – That means those that took Minnesota tonight should be very worried.”. That turned out to be true as the Bears scored a shocking upset on Monday Night Football against what was one of the most popular picks for the week for NFL Survivor Pool players. Thankfully I was 50/50 on whether to pick the Vikings or Cowboys, and I went with the latter. That was because the ‘Boys were at home and they were coming off the bye as opposed to Minnesota, who didn’t look good in a Week 7 blowout loss to Philly. Dallas pretty much needed a miracle comeback to win the game in OT. But a win is a win, and now my pool has been cut in half and I am one remaining of about 15 players. The prize is in sight.

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I read a lot of the other Survivor Pool content on the Internet. I like to see what others have to say and see different kinds of strategy. But one thing I never understand is “saving teams”, which I read a lot on various blogs. This is too tough of a contest to save teams. Some articles I read recommended taking the Vikings instead of the Cowboys because Dallas had more future value. I have also read about people saving the Patriots for later in the season. My goal is always to make the best pick that week that has the best chance to win and advance me in the pool. What good does saving a team do you if you get knocked out? I was 50/50 between the Cowboys and Vikings last week but chose Dallas even though they play the Browns this week. But I thought the Cowboys were the better pick. And that ended up being true, even though they would have been a strong consideration for me this week at Cleveland.

Every week in this space I look at the opening lines in the NFL. This is my system for coming up with Survivor Pool picks. I use the spread to determine my pool of potential picks I may use for the week. And with that list of teams I do further research during the week in order to formulate my picks.

Here are the games I will focus on this week. I normally only look at spreads above three points.

NFL Survivor Pool picks Week 9 Opening Line Report

Atlanta -3.5 at Tampa Bay (Thursday): It’s getting down to the point of the season where there aren’t a lot of good teams left in Survivor Pools and you have to start looking at road games and divisional matchups, two things I try to avoid for my NFL Survivor Pool picks. I normally wouldn’t consider the Falcons in this spot but I have used a lot of the better options this week already, so this game may be a consideration. Atlanta got back on track last week with a big home win over Green Bay. They are a better team than Tampa Bay and should be able to score the road win here. I will probably pass on this game, however, as Tampa Bay has won three straight in the series and these Thursday night games have a chance to even out the matchup with a short week or preparation. They also normally favor the home team.

Kansas City -9 vs. Jacksonville: This is the largest spread on the board for Week 9 and this would be my top pick if I hadn’t already used the Chiefs. Kansas City was a popular Week 1 pick. So there probably aren’t a lot of people that have them available. But if you do, by all means take them. Jacksonville is probably the second-worst team in the league at this point and the team seems to have quit if their pathetic performance on Thursday at Tennessee is any indication. Check the status of KC QB Alex Smith during the week here if you plan to take the Chiefs, even though backup Nick Foles filled in admirably for him in Week 8.

Minnesota -6 vs. Detroit: Since I took Dallas instead of Minnesota for Week 8, I do have the Vikings available this week. This is definitely a game I will consider as my cupboards are starting to get bare for the teams I have available. There are a few things that scare me about Minnesota. They have looked awful the last two weeks in losses to Philly and Chicago, two teams I don’t think are very good. They are also on a short week off Monday Night Football. Detroit is also a dangerous team that can look like a Super Bowl contender one week and a bottom-feeder the next. But Detroit is only 1-3 on the road this season while the Vikings are 3-0 at home, and Minnesota swept their division rival last season. This is a strong possibility for a bounce back by Minnesota.

Dallas -7 at Cleveland: If I hadn’t used Dallas last week then this would be a strong possibility. This will be one of the most popular picks in Survivor Pools this week as everyone loves to fade the Browns. I do like the effort Cleveland gives on a weekly basis. They don’t give up despite the fact that they are always overmatched on the field  from a talent standpoint. But Dallas is playing very well right now and they are normally a solid road team. As of this writing the Cowboys would be my second-best choice for the week after the Chiefs.

Miami -3.5 vs. New York Jets: Thank God I have already used Miami and don’t have to even consider them this week. This team stinks, although they can show flashes of brilliance every now and then. But that they are such a slim home favorite over the Jets tells a lot. New York has won three straight in this series and four of five. But this year’s version of the Jets looks a lot worse than those teams. Miami has looked pretty good the last couple weeks and maybe they are finally playing to their potential. I just think Survivor Pool players should avoid them this week. This looks more like a game you would choose in Week 17 when you are without any better options instead of one to use Week 9 when there are still some decent teams on the board.

Carolina -3 at Los Angeles: I have already used the Panthers, but I actually think they are a decent option this week. They looked back in form last week in the win vs. Arizona. There will be a couple NFL teams that started slowly but finish off the season with a flourish, and I think the Panthers could be one of those types of teams. If you are stuck without many options this week, I feel you can take Carolina with some confidence as I think they roll into LaLa Land and notch a win.

Green Bay -7 vs. Indianapolis: Another pick I like here. The Colts are pretty bad this season. They mortgaged the future to sign Andrew Luck to a huge contract and they could not afford to put much around him. Not a great recipe for success. This is one of the thinnest teams in the league, and without depth they can’t weather the normal injuries that an NFL team goes through. The Packers have lost two of three – even though the losses came to very good teams – and they will be desperate to win this one. Yes, they are thin at RB and are dealing with a lot of injuries, but the Colts are thin at many positions. Green Bay is a solid Week 9 NFL Survivor Pool pick, even though I have already used them in my pool.

San Diego -5.5 vs. Tennessee: I haven’t used the Chargers yet and may have to write down their name this week. That scares me. This team has been playing pretty well, but they always take games down to the final minute and no lead is safe with them. It’s probably between Minnesota and San Diego for me this week, and I’m just not sure if I can choose San Diego as whenever I have a bet on or against them I am always sweating the game out until the final seconds. Not sure I can handle the stress with so much on the line in my Survivor Pool. I do expect the Chargers to win this one, however, to try to keep pace in the ultra-competitive AFC West.

Seattle -6.5 vs. Buffalo (Monday Night Football): The Hawks are an option for me this week, and this will definitely be a team I will have in my pool of possibilities. I will be monitoring the status of Bills RB LeSean McCoy during the week. If he doesn’t play then Seattle becomes a stronger option. This is the problem with taking picks from Monday Night Games, however, as the status of McCoy may not be clear by the deadline I have to submit my picks. Both teams have looked lousy lately. The Seahawks are coming off a tie and a loss. Buffalo is coming off two losses. Seattle is coming off a two-game road trip, however, and they have yet to lose at home, where they have one of the best advantages in football, this season.