NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 8: Opening Line Report

Last week was a pretty easy one for NFL Survivor Pool players as the chalk took care of business in most games; certainly the ones that pool players were interested in. I took Green Bay over Chicago on Thursday and they won easily. I was sure there would be at least one big upset on Sunday or Monday that would knock a lot of players out, but it didn’t happen. San Diego’s upset at Atlanta may have caused a ripple in your pool, but only one player of the 30+ in my pool took the Chargers.

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Every week in this space I will go down the list of favorites for the NFL and comment on games that I am considering using for my NFL Survivor Pool picks. This helps me whittle down a list of 15 or so games and then I have a group of picks from which to do further research. Always remember, however, that the oddsmakers aren’t perfect. They set their lines not according to how they think the game will play out but instead based on the betting patterns of the public. Normally I am going to use a favorite of more than three points when I can, but in rare cases I disagree with the oddsmakers. For example, I liked Kansas City a couple weeks ago at the Raiders, and they were a slight road underdog. Sharp bettors agreed with me and they were favorites by kickoff, but this was a unique case of where I disagreed with the bookies. And, of course, the Chiefs rolled to an easy win.

NFL Survivor Pool picks Week 8 Opening Line Report

Tennessee -3.5 vs. Jacksonville (Thursday): Not sure what is going on in Jacksonville. This team was supposed to be pretty good this season. You have to think that coaching might be the issue, and Gus Bradley won’t be around long. They were blown out at home by the Raiders on Sunday and barely put up a fight. As bad as this team is, however, I won’t be using the Titans this week for my Survivor Pool pick. Tennessee is a solid team that is building behind stellar young QB Marcus Mariota. But they are not there yet. They will probably win here, but these teams normally play each other tough every season and I tend to stay away from Thursday games anyways as there are too many intangibles on a short week of rest.

New England -6.5 at Buffalo: Unless you are saving the Pats, you have probably already used them long ago. If you still have them available then you have a powerful weapon in your back pocket. This team isn’t going to lose many games this season. They have revenge here for their lone loss on the season, and I’m sure they are in for another big game. I would recommend using this team almost every week of the season as this is far and away the best team in the league.

New York Jets -5.5 at Cleveland: For those that like to fade the Browns every week, this is your moment of truth. If you have a strategy to fade Cleveland every week you have to stick to it, even when it doesn’t look great. But personally I want no part of the Jets this week. This team just looks awful, and they seem to be playing with less heart every week. They went with Geno Smith last week at QB in order to try and shake things up, but he promptly suffered a season-ending injury. So they are back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has been hands down the worst QB in the league this season. I think this is one game the Browns have a serious chance to win. They are sure playing with a lot more heart right now than the Jets even though they lack the talent on the field.

Denver -4.5 vs. San Diego: I haven’t used Denver yet, so this is an option for me albeit one I won’t be taking advantage of. I’m just not a big believer in Denver and I think the Super Bowl hangover is real, and not just for the losing team. There are some negative check marks here for the home team. San Diego just beat Denver a couple weeks ago. This is a division game. Denver is on a short week of rest after playing on Monday Night Football. All of those factors make Denver a real shaky pick here. The Chargers are playing very well and this team should have a lot better record if they didn’t choke away a few games early in the season. Buyer beware with Denver.

Dallas -4.5 vs. Philadelphia: Even though I don’t like using division games when I can avoid it, this one seems like a pretty solid pick on what is a tough week for Survivor Pools. Dallas is coming off the bye and will be well rested here. Philadelphia is probably due for a letdown after their upset win over Minnesota. Philly has a bright future and I like Carson Wentz in his rookie season. But I just don’t think this team is that good this year, and Dallas looks like the clear top team in the division. I think they take care of business here and this is probably my second-favorite play of the week right now.

Minnesota -5.5 at Chicago (Monday Night Football): Not a lot to pick from this week as this divisional rivalry is probably my favorite play of the week from the teams I have available. And the Vikings are on the road as well here. But The Bears are a mess, and Minnesota should be able to bounce back from their shocking loss to Philly and get back on the winning track here. Jay Cutler should be back under center for this one, and if you’re a Bears fan that’s probably not a good thing. Minnesota’s defense is nasty and I don’t see Chicago getting much accomplished offensively. This scares me because the Vikings looked so bad last week, but considering their whole body of work this year you just have to like them to bounce back against an inferior club on Monday night.