2015 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4 Expert Predictions and Analysis

Week 4 is a really tough week for NFL Survivor Pool players to find a winning pick. There are a lot of larger favorites on the board, but I really don’t love any of them this week. Seattle and Indianapolis are the big chalk in the area of 10 points for Week 4. Those teams are a combined 2-4 on the season. Throw in Green Bay as the third-largest favorite on the road at San Francisco, and I can truly say I don’t want any part in any of those three teams. I think there’s a good chance that one or even two of these squads will suffer an upset.

Therefore, I must look at some of the smaller favorites for my pick. I had a doozy of a time coming up with my NFL Survivor Pool picks for Week 4. It reminds me of how tough Week 1 was. But for Week 1 I had a couple months to do handicapping for the games. This week I have only a few days. Here is what I came up with. I am crossing my fingers this week that I made the right choice as I changed my mind a few times before coming up with my top pick.

I will list my top plays in order of confidence and then give some teams I would recommend to stay away from.

2015 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4

Three to Follow

Arizona vs. St. Louis: This pick originally wasn’t on my radar that much. But after toggling back and forth between a few teams and doing some extra research I think this is the safest pick for the week. I don’t like that this is a divisional matchup. The Rams are one of my underdog teams this season that I think will surpass expectations when getting points on the betting line. But there is no denying that the Cardinals look like the clear No. 2 team in the NFC. They have demolished all opponents, and they swept the Rams last year, so they have a recent history of dominance in this series (they were also 7-1 at home last season). They are also scorching hot right now. Sometimes wins and losses come in bunches in the NFL. And you can’t deny that Arizona has some crazy momentum right now. This team has done so well with Carson Palmer behind center since he came to Arizona. Might as well take Arizona off the board while they are hot and while Palmer is healthy. If he does get hurt again then this team is in real trouble like we saw late last season.

Buffalo vs. New York Giants: This is the game I switched back and forth from many times. I really like the Bills in this spot and have bet on them already. However, I would rather just risk a bet here than my whole Survivor Pool season, especially since my main pool is down to less than 20 competitors. There were a couple red flags that made me switch my top pick away from Buffalo. First, RB LeSean McCoy is listed as doubtful on the injury report. WR Sammy Watkins is questionable. That’s two strong players possibly missing at the skill positions. But the biggest red flag for me is that the Bills are taking the majority of action at the betting window, yet the line has not increased. It has actually lowered, making the Bills a more attractive bet. That tells me smart bettors are on the Giants, and I don’t want to go against them in a really tough Survivor Pool week like this one.

Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville: The Colts have not looked good to start the season and barely got by a bad Tennessee team for their first win last week. Now QB Andrew Luck is listed as day-to-day on the injury report. That makes this a very scary pick. But many oddsmakers have listed a line for this one, and to me that means they expect Luck to play on Sunday. I don’t think this Indianapolis team is as bad as they have looked the first few weeks of the season. They will turn it on at some point, and it will probably be this week at home and against an inferior opponent like the Jags. I can see this team rattling off a winning streak once they heat up. But it’s hard to trust them right now the way they have been playing to start the season. But just look at Green Bay last year. The sky was supposedly falling for Packers fans after a slow start. They turned out just fine. Same thing for New England. When they were blown out in Kansas City last season on Monday Night Football everyone lost faith. And they ended up winning it all. The Colts will be fine, and I think they win this game as long as Luck plays.

Honorable mention: San Diego vs. Cleveland

Three to Avoid

Green Bay at San Francisco: I’m avoiding this game because I don’t take road teams this early. And I think Green Bay is on upset alert this week. At the very least this should be a close game. San Francisco looked great in their lone home game, a blowout upset of now 2-1 Minnesota. They have looked pretty lousy on the road, but this is probably one of those teams that plays well at home and stinks on the road. Green Bay comes off a Monday Night Football blowout win over Kansas City. They looked unstoppable in that game. But now they have to travel on the road on a short week against a team that always plays them tough and considers Green Bay a rival. The Pack should suffer at least a couple losses this season, and it wouldn’t shock me if this was one of them.

Seattle vs. Detroit: A lot of people have used Seattle already in the first three weeks of the season. Some are out because of it, but those who used them in Week 3, like myself, had an easy week last week. I don’t think Seattle is the same team this year that we have seen the last couple years. When you have enjoyed so much success it’s hard to keep that competitive fire burning. Plus a lot of big egos in the lockeroom can doom a team. This is a good team, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t think they will win their division this year as long as Palmer doesn’t get hurt for Arizona. But the main thing here is that I don’t think Detroit is as bad of a team as they have looked through the first three weeks. They will be really motivated here to avoid going 0-4. This team has enough talent to win any game against any opponent. They will give it their all on Monday Night Football this week.

Oakland at Chicago: I mention this one because I was asked on Twitter last night if a Survivor Pool competitor should consider taking the Raiders this week. He didn’t like any of the big favorites for Week 4 and wanted to take a gamble here. I told him not to do it. For this game in particular the Raiders are taking the heaviest action on the betting board this week. That means the sportsbooks are rooting for the Bears. And you don’t want to go against the experts in a game like this. While many Survivor Pools have been whittled down because of Black Sunday in Week 2, it’s still only Week 4 and way too early to take a gamble like this. There are still 13 weeks left in the season after this week, so there will be ample time to take a team like the Raiders in a game like this down the line assuming you make it past Week 10. This Twitter user also mentioned he liked the Bills this week the most but was saving them for next week. I also recommend to never save teams. This is a Survivor Pool, and you just can’t look down the road. It doesn’t matter if you save teams if you aren’t around to use them. Always use your top choice that week if you are confident in the pick!

Honorable mention: Denver vs. Minnesota

We’ll be back next week with plenty of Week 5 NFL Survivor Pool analysis. And if you want our official picks, from three former Survivor Pool winners, sign up for our newsletter on the left hand side of this blog. Best of luck this week!