2015 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 2 Expert Predictions and Analysis

Week 1 turned out to be a fairly straightforward week for NFL Survivor Pools. It looked very tough on paper, but most of the favorites won despite a few mild upsets. My main pool consists of about 200 participants. About 30 people were knocked out. Not quite the bloodbath I was expecting.

So now we look forward to Week 2. Be sure to sign up for our newsletter to get official expert picks from three former Survivor Pool winners, including myself, e-mailed to you on Friday. Here is what we sent last week. However, in this space I will give my 2015 NFL Survivor Pool picks for Week 2 and recommend some games to consider and some to avoid. There really aren’t a lot of great options this week, but I think I have isolated some good picks that will help me advance to Week 3. These picks will be listed in order of confidence.

2015 NFL Survivor Pool picks Week 2 expert predictions and analysis

Three to Follow

Indianapolis vs. New York Jets: The Colts looked awful last week in getting embarrassed in the season opener at the Bills. I think that was more of a bad game than there being real problems in Indy. This team will still win 11 or 12 games, and they should have no problem taking the division. I think that season-opening loss shows they may not be a real Super Bowl contender. But, hey, New England got blown out on Monday Night Football last year by a Kansas City Chiefs team that didn’t even make the playoffs, so even really good teams can have a bad game here and there. I’m willing to give the Colts a mulligan for last week. And the Jets win at home against Cleveland wasn’t overly impressive in my eyes. It’s the Browns, after all, and this is likely one of the worst teams in the NFL this year. The Colts obviously want to avoid going 0-2 and should put forth their best effort here against an inferior opponent. I thought the pointspread on this game would be double-digits before Week 1, and I have a bet on Indy at -7 as I think that is real good value. I expect the Colts to bounce back in a big way.

Currently in our Survivor Pool poll for Week 2 on the left side of this blog, the Colts are getting only about 5 percent of the vote for this week. That’s great, because I think this is a clear better choice than the Saints over Tampa Bay, so I will be putting most of my Week 2 Survivor Pool stake on a game that won’t be very popular. That is a good thing as I’m confident about this game.

Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco: I’ll admit it, the Niners looked great on Monday Night Football in a dominating performance against the Vikings. I still don’t think this team will be very good this year and think they finish with about six wins. I definitely don’t see them starting 2-0 as I don’t see the Steelers starting 0-2, either. Pittsburgh is clearly the better team here. They also have extra preparation time for this contest as they played on Thursday last week while the Niners have a short week as they played on MNF. And they also have the dreaded trip east to play an early game, which is always a bad thing for West Coast teams. Even though I was all over the Patriots last week, I do think the Steelers played a respectable game. They had a few mistakes and mental errors that cost them the game, but they should be primed for a bounce back against an inferior team here in the home opener.

New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay: I will say right away that even though I’m recommending the Saints here that I have already bet on the Buccaneers in this game. I don’t think New Orleans is a legitimate double-digit favorite here. In my handicapping I pegged the Saints as a 7.5-point favorite. So while I expect them to win the game, I do think that the spread is too large. And I think this has a chance to be a close game. New Orleans has not proved squat that they have improved from last season when they went just 7-9. They have to prove to me that they are a strong home team like in previous years. They were just 3-5 here last season. And one of those wins was against these Tampa Bay Bucs, but they needed overtime to get the job done.

Not sure why so many people are crazy about the Saints this week. They are getting more than 58 percent of the votes in our poll this week. I play multiple cards in different pools and will probably use this team on at least one card. Favorites of 10 or more points avoided the upset at a very high rate last season. But I think Tampa Bay will play better than last week and that the Saints still have a lot to prove. This is far and away the most popular Survivor Pool pick for Week 2. But I’m not as convinced as most.

Honorable Mention: Baltimore at Oakland

Three to Avoid

Miami at Jacksonville: The Dolphins looked about as bad as a team that won and covered the spread could in Week 1. They managed only 17 points against a Redskins defense that was really bad last season. They let Washington hang around for way too long in that game. Jacksonville has been the most popular fade team in NFL Survivor Pools for the last couple seasons. But before last week I thought this team would be improved this season. I am not ready to give up on them yet as an improved team, and this is way too early in the season to pick a shaky road team like Miami. It would not surprise me to see the Jags win this game. However, I would not bet on them even at plus points. These two teams are ones I want to watch a bit before I make any plays on them betting-wise or for Survivor Pools.

St. Louis at Washington: Another road team to avoid here. I think this game is a major trap and wouldn’t touch the Rams this week for my Survivor Pool. This team got one of its biggest wins of the season last week in their upset of Seattle. I watched the end of that game, and they used so much energy and there was a lot of emotion involved on both sides. It’s hard to come back and play your best effort against a team like Washington the next week. I expect another close game here. Much better options on the board to use the Rams on the road in a trap game like this.

Philadelphia vs. Dallas: Dallas is a team I almost always stay away from – playing for or against – in my NFL Survivor Pools. Just look at last week when they almost lost at home to the Giants and knocked out about half of your pool. This team always seems to play better as an underdog and underachieve as a favorite. I think that they might give the Eagles a game here. It would be just like Dallas for them to do so after everyone has jumped off the bandwagon. Remember, Dallas was 8-0 on the road last season while going only 4-4 at home. Just shows how unpredictable this team is, and that is why I chose not to deal with them much (or until late in the season when choices are slim) for my Survivor Pool picks.

Honorable Mention: Cincinnati vs. San Diego

Best of luck with your picks this week. Be sure to sign up for our newsletter and get free Week 2 picks from three former Survivor Pool winners. If you want to ask some questions for Week 3 we will answer them next week. You can e-mail us at nflsurvivorpoolpicks@gmail.com or ask us on Twitter @sppicks.