NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 7: Opening Line Report

Week 6 in the NFL saw quite a bit of upsets, similar to Week 5, although there wasn’t a double-digit upset like in Kansas City last Sunday. But all in all, seven of the 12 Sunday games resulted in the underdog winning outright, which might have caused a problem for Survivor Pool players despite the fact that the most popular picks took care of business. But at this point in the season, it’s becoming more difficult to find teams one hasn’t already used. But at least we have the Dolphins to fade every week, and that strategy worked out well again in Week 6!

Every week I go over the NFL opening lines and give some advice on whether those matchups would be prime for a Survivor Pool pick for that week. I will work my way down from the highest to lowest spreads, with predictions and analysis.

Buffalo -17 vs. Miami: We are seeing some of the biggest spreads we have seen in years almost weekly for the Dolphins. Heck, the Redskins were a decent-priced road favorite against Miami last week, and Washington is one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. You get the feeling that Miami didn’t want to win that game on Sunday as they could be battling with the Skins for the No. 1 pick in the draft. I don’t think the Bills are a good enough team to be laying this many points on the spread, but this is certainly the top pick of the week for Survivor Pools and one that 99 percent of Survivor players haven’t used yet.

San Francisco -10 at Washington: The Niners are one of only two undefeated teams left in the NFL. They have had a fairly easy schedule so far, though, and the tougher matchups they have played have been against teams that are playing below expectations (Rams, Steelers and Browns). So, I don’t think we really know how good this team is yet. But they are surely good enough to beat the Redskins, and this is as solid of a play as any here for Week 7. I normally hate playing road teams this early in the season, but there are so many bad teams in the NFL this year that you have to change your philosophy bit and adjust to the current market.

New England -9.5 at New York Jets: Most have used the Pats already, but if not, they are always a viable option. For Week 7, however, I don’t like this matchup as much as the two I mentioned previously. The Jets come in with a ton of confidence after knocking off the Cowboys in Week 6. This is a rivalry game and the only chance the Jets will have of beating the Pats at home this season. They will come to play here on Monday Night Football, and a win here would be the highlight of a season for a team that won’t be playing in the postseason. The Pats are good but have had an easy schedule (laughable, really). They won’t be going 16-0 in the regular season, and their schedule gets much tougher after this week. I could see them slip up here and maybe underperform in this matchup, although even in that scenario they probably still win.

Green Bay -5.5 vs. Oakland: After the above three games, the quality drops way off for Week 7 Survivor Pool picks. Oakland is much better this season. They come in having won two straight and off a bye, while the Packers come in on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. I would avoid this matchup for Survivor Pools.

Seattle -3.5 vs. Baltimore: I really like the way the Hawks have played this season, and Russell Wilson is the deserving MVP favorite at this point. I would say I like the Seahawks in this matchup more than the Chiefs, mentioned below, as this is a normal Sunday game and Seattle is at home, where they enjoy one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.

Jacksonville -3.5 at Cincinnati: The Bengals are considered one of the worst teams in the league at 0-6. But I don’t think they are that bad. Certainly not as bad as the Dolphins or Redskins. This team will win some games this season, and this is for sure a winnable one. They have been competitive most weeks and played well again on Sunday vs. Baltimore, covering as a double-digit doggie. This team doesn’t know how to win games, however, but I’m not about to trust Jacksonville on the road in this situation.

Chicago -3 vs. New Orleans: The Bears are coming off a bye, but New Orleans is a better team, even with Drew Brees out of the lineup. This team has played well with Teddy Bridgewater under center and will be in great shape when their leader returns in a couple weeks. This team should be the favorite in the NFC once again.

Kansas City -3 at Denver: I normally stay away from Thursday NFL games for Survivor Pool purposes, as the short week of preparation can cause trouble for the favored team. Before the Pats blew out the Giants last Thursday, the underdog had won every one of these Thursday games this season. Pat Mahomes ankle isn’t right, and there has been some talk (from the media) about how he should rest this week to give him extra healing time. Won’t happen, and the Chiefs could be in real trouble in the division if they lose this one on Thursday.

NY Giants -3 vs. Arizona: The Giants played decently in their Week 6 loss to the Pats, and this squad is probably a bit better overall as a team than the Cardinals, yet they are getting the standard 3-point home-field advantage in this one. New York also has extended rest since they played on Thursday last week. I wouldn’t advise to take a risk like this with better choices on the board, but if you are dead set on avoiding the main favorites, then the Giants could be worth a look.

LA Rams -3 at Atlanta: Both teams have underachieved thus far and are not worthy of trust at this point. The Rams, on paper, are the better team, and they deserve this handicap on the road. But I have the feeling the Falcons will start to put it together at some point as this team surely has some talent. It might take the coaching staff being jettisoned before that happens.

Dallas -3 vs. Philadelphia: Both teams coming off bad losses. The NFC East is up for grabs, and these teams are tied at the top at 3-3. Big rivalry game, and both teams will be playing their hardest. If you want to use this game for Survivor Pools, then you are braver than me.

Tennessee -2 vs. LA Chargers: While it’s still early, you have to feel as this is a must-win game for the 2-4 Chargers, one of the teams everyone expected to nab a wild card spot in the AFC this season. They have looked pretty bad thus far, but injuries are party to blame. These are just two inconsistent teams, however, and this game is useless from a Survivor Pool perspective.

Indianapolis -1 vs. Houston: The Colts are coming off their big upset win over the Chiefs in Week 5 then they had a bye in Week 6. So, they are in a good position here to play their best, and they are going to be confident. But Houston is coming off their own upset win over Kansas City on Sunday, and they have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL over the course of the last couple weeks. This is a hard one to call, and I will probably take the Texans on the spread, but this is one to avoid for Survivor Pools.

Minnesota -1 at Detroit: The Lions were absolutely robbed on Monday Night Football by the refs. And they come into this game on a short week against a Minnesota team that has suddenly looked like the one we all expected to see after their slow start. I have to lean to the small favorite here. Too early in the Survivor Pool season to use a game like this, however.