NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 5: Opening Line Report

Week 4 in the NFL was Upset City as more than half the games played over the weekend resulted in the team getting points winning outright. The biggest favorite on the board, however, the LA Chargers at Miami, won easily, so those that are fading the Dolphins every week moved on. I was very lukewarm about the Chargers but did end up using them on one card, taking the Rams and Texans on my others. Not a great idea in hindsight. Especially after I talked to a sharp bettor I respect who liked the Bucs a lot for their game against the Rams. Now I don’t have any more room for error, but I normally do my best once I am knocked down to one card to play with to just pick the best team each week.

Every week in this space I will give commentary on every NFL game using the point spread as a guideline. Those that love to fade the Dolphins will have to adopt another strategy this week as they are on a bye in Week 5. But here we will go down the list, starting with the biggest favorites first.

Week 5 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Opening Line Report

New England -15.5 at Washington: Most have used the Patriots already. What’s up with the Patriots having such an easy schedule every year? Sure, they play in a bad division, but I would sure like to see them be seriously tested. And they won’t really be tested too much until the back half of the season. If you haven’t previously used New England, this would certainly be a good time to do so.

Philadelphia -14 vs. NY Jets: The Eagles come in on extra rest after their big Thursday night win in Green Bay. They looked pretty good in that game, and this has the look of a team shaking off a slow start. Sam Darnold could be back for the Jets after recovering from mono, but I don’t think he will be much help for a completely anemic offense.

Kansas City -11 vs. Indianapolis: The Chiefs offense is pretty much unstoppable. But, once again, their defense can’t stop anyone. They were very lucky to win in Detroit on Sunday. Indy looked horrible against the Raiders, but they were probably looking ahead to this matchup, which is one they definitely had circled when the schedule came out after the playoff loss in KC last season. This is an inflated spread, but KC should be able to win this one at home under the lights on Sunday night.

LA Chargers -6.5 vs. Denver: Denver just looks hopeless, and the players put in a mostly pathetic effort in their Week 4 loss to Jacksonville. The Chargers looked good for the first time this season, but was that because of their play on the field or the quality of their opponent? The Chargers should win this game on Sunday. But they should have won more so far this season, and I don’t think the win over the Dolphins told us much about the current state of this team. And Denver is probably playing for their season, and against a divisional rival. The first three games on this list seem like safe bets, but then the quality of matchups goes way down starting with this game.

Minnesota -5.5 at NY Giants: I had some high hopes for Minnesota coming into the season. They are a pretty good team overall, but I think their main problem is at QB as Kirk Cousins has been a major disappointment. They have already lost two big divisional games. But this feels like a “get right” game to me, and I would be pretty confident in picking the Vikings to bounce back this week. They need this game badly.

Chicago -5 at Oakland: Another road favorite. There are a bunch of them this week. Chase Daniel will start at OB for the Bears here, and he might actually be an upgrade from Mitch Trubisky. Oakland is coming in with a ton of confidence after their big upset in at Indy on Sunday. Not a big fan of the Bears here in this situation on the road.

Houston -5 vs. Atlanta: Really liked the Texans last week and paid dearly for my support. What the heck is wrong with this team? They have some nice talent. It has to be coaching. Atlanta has looked very lackluster so far, but they have a real chance here for the win with the way the Texans performed on Sunday.

Baltimore -3.5 at Pittsburgh: The Steelers got their first win of the season on Monday Night Football, but that came against one of the worst teams in the league. Baltimore got their asses handed to them at home vs. Cleveland. I have a lot more respect for the Ravens right now in this matchup, but this is on the road and a divisional rivalry. This is a game you would feel comfortable taking in Week 15 but not in Week 5 with other, better options available.

Cincinnati -3.5 vs. Arizona: Ugly matchup for Sunday. Cincy has the better and more experienced QB, and is at home, but there’s not much else that separates these teams. The Bengals have been more competitive, but their three-point effort on Monday Night Football wasn’t very inspiring. And they are coming in on a short week. Stay away!

Carolina -3.5 vs. Jacksonville: Carolina has won two straight, and Kyle Allen has looked decent enough after being thrust into the starter role at QB. The team seems to have confidence in him, and they played a good game on Sunday in their upset of Houston, even though they put up only 16 points in the effort. The Jags have won two straight as well, and they are playing with confidence as well. I will probably bet the underdog here just because they are getting the hook (extra half point off the NFL key betting number of 3).

New Orleans -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay: Tough divisional game here. If Drew Brees was playing for the Saints, this one would be a no-brainer. But the Bucs looked amazing on Sunday in their road upset win of the Rams. They finally have a competent coach, and they have a good chance to pull another upset here on Sunday. This could be a team on the rise.

Tennessee -3 vs. Buffalo: I was impressed with the Bills even in a losing effort on Sunday at home vs. the Pats. But Josh Allen is questionable for this game, and the line is off the board at some sportsbooks. Tennessee is one of the toughest teams to figure out in the early going of the NFL season. If you have a good read on this squad, you are way ahead of where I am for this matchup!

Dallas -3.5 vs. Green Bay: Really see this as a coin flip game. Both teams are coming off a loss and will play hard here in Week 5. Green Bay comes in with extra rest/prep time, and the Cowboys with less as they played Sunday night. Big pass on this one, but it should be an entertaining game to watch.

San Francisco -3.5 vs. Cleveland: The Niners come off their early bye. So, they have a big edge there, and that is probably where the extra half-point comes in for this line. Cleveland finally looked like the team we were expecting them to be in their Sunday win at Baltimore. This one could go either way.

Seattle -1.5 vs. LA Rams: Were the Rams exposed on Sunday by the Bucs? That sure was an ugly loss, and now they have to shake that off quick and play on Thursday. But the underdog has won every Thursday game in the NFL so far this year. We could easily see that trend continue this week.