NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 6: Opening Line Report

Six of the 15 games in Week 5 resulted in an upset. There were a couple bigger upsets that probably affected Survivor Pool players, most notably the Chiefs losing as big double-digit home favorites to Indianapolis, and the Chargers continued their disappointing season with a home loss to Denver.

Every week I go over the NFL opening lines and give some advice on whether those matchups would be prime for a Survivor Pool pick for that week. This article is coming out a little late this week, so I will get right to it. Games will be listed with the highest spreads down to the lowest for Week 6.

New England -17 vs. NY Giants: Most have picked the Pats already. If you haven’t, they are certainly a viable option almost every week. They have had a comically easy schedule so far, and it gets tougher in the second half of the season. So, there’s no good point in saving this team for later. I normally stay away from Thursday games since the short preparation time gives the underdog a chance. In fact, the underdog has won every Thursday game thus far this season. But that trend will end Thursday. The Pats are certainly the top play this week, and these guys are pros and the early-week start shouldn’t bother them too much.

Baltimore -12 vs. Cincinnati: Although this is a divisional matchup, behind these two big favorites, there’s not a lot to get excited about for Week 6. So, you have to seriously consider Baltimore for a Week 6 Survivor Pool pick. The Ravens got a win in Week 5 at Pittsburgh, but this team was probably quite a bit overrated early in the season after big wins over Miami and Arizona, but those are little more than morale victories as bad as those clubs are. The Bengals have been competitive in three of their five games, but this team doesn’t know how to win. I think the Bengals will cover the number this weekend, but a straight up win will be a tough result.

Dallas -7.5 at NY Jets: This seems like a “get right” game for Dallas, and I like to back a quality team in this position. They lost two straight to strong opponents, and they won’t take this game for granted as a three-game losing streak would be devastating for this team’s season. But they will be 4-2 with a win and right in the thick of things. Sam Darnold should be back for the Jets, but he will probably be rusty, and this team just can’t generate any offense no matter who is behind center. I like the ‘Boys to take care of business on Sunday.

LA Chargers -6.5 vs. Pittsburgh: This is the Sunday night game. On paper this should be an easy call with the Steelers’ QB issues. But the Chargers have injury problems as well, and this team has just not looked like the squad everyone expected coming into the season. I just can’t trust this team right now, and the Steelers have some good players if they can get some effective QB play.

Kansas City -4.5 vs. Houston: Pat Mahomes was limping around all game during the SNF loss to Indy. That has to scare backers this week. And also the fact that they were thoroughly dominated against the Colts in a game where the final score was a little deceiving. It was a strong win for Indy. Houston has been inconsistent, but they looked great last week in a 53-point effort, and if they play like that here, they have every chance to pull the upset. Two teams trending in opposite directions?

Green Bay -4.5 vs. Detroit: The Lions are one of the nicest surprises in the NFL this season, and I don’t think it’s a fluke. They have earned their wins. And they should have beat the Chiefs as well in Week 4. And they come in off a bye here, so they have that advantage. Not to mention they have had a lot of success lately against the Packers. But Green Bay is the better team and at home, and I just feel they will put together another strong performance on Monday Night Football.

Washington -3.5 at Miami: The Redskins are one of the worst NFL teams we have seen in years. And the fact that they are favored, on the road, above the key betting number of 3, here, is hilarious. Those that have been blindly fading Miami might want to take pause this week as this is one of only a few winnable games for the Dolphins, and they will probably give their best effort.

LA Rams -3.5 vs. San Francisco: Total coin clip game. Some trusted sources like the Rams this week, but with the way the Niners have been playing, I will be staying far away from this game.

Minnesota -3 vs. Philadelphia: The Vikings are a team I was really high on coming into the season. They have been back-and-forth thus far. But they had their “get right” game last week and took care of business with an exclamation point over NY Giants. I think that confidence will spill over this week, and the home field will make the difference here. I like this matchup better than both 3.5 favorites listed above.

Carolina -2.5 “at” Tampa Bay (London): I never use these international games for Survivor Pools. Just too much travel and the players get out of their normal routine. I like the Bucs for the upset here and have bet them plus the points already.

Atlanta -2.5 at Arizona: Sooner or later, the Cardinals will start to figure things out, and with Kyler Murray I think this will be a dangerous team later in the season. They will pull a couple upsets at least. But I have no interest in this game. The Falcons have been one of the bigger disappointments in the league this season, and you have to think the coaching staff might be on the way out of town soon.

Denver -2.5 vs. Tennessee: Denver looked good last week and is a team in the rise, in my opinion. The AFC West was looking like a one-team race for weeks, but now the Chiefs look mortal and the Broncos and Raiders are surging. Tennessee is too tough of a team to figure out. No interest in this matchup from a Survivor Pool perspective.

Seattle -1.5 at Cleveland: Which Browns team will show up on Sunday? Your guess is as good as mine. Seattle is a deserving favorite here, but either team winning would not be a shock.

Jacksonville -1 vs. New Orleans: Should be another good game that either team could win. New Orleans will be one of the NFC’s top teams when all is said and done if Brees returns soon and stays healthy. Teddy Bridgewater has played well in his absence and is a solid placeholder until the starter returns.