NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4: Opening Line Report

There were six upsets on Sunday in NFL action. But only a few of those matchups likely had any effect on NFL Survivor Pool players. The Eagles lost at home to the Lions as four-point favorites. And Tampa Bay (NY Giants) and Seattle (New Orleans) both lost at home as five-point favorites. Those three were all risky plays. Week 3 was historic in the fact that there were two favorites (New England and Dallas) of more than three touchdowns. These were the obvious choices, and one or the other should have been available to most Survivor Pool players. Week 3 wasn’t the time to take risks. I had Dallas on all my cards and was so confident that I barely checked the score as I was watching the Ravens-Chiefs game.

This week is going to be a bit tougher. There is one big double-digit favorite (LA Chargers at Miami), one close to double-digits, and some in the area of a touchdown. Most NFL Survivor Pool players are going to take the Chargers this week. I’m not too hyped on that pick, however. The Dolphins look to be one of the worst teams we have seen in the NFL the last few years. But there are a few reasons I am hesitant to go against them this week.

Every week during the 17-week NFL season, I will go over the opening lines for the NFL and asses each matchup from its viability as a potential NFL Survivor Pool pick. I normally start with the biggest lines first and work my way down.

Remember, however — and I can’t stress this enough — that the oddsmakers set the lines with the betting public in mind. When they set the Chargers as a 16-point favorite at Miami, they don’t expect Los Angeles to win by more than two touchdowns. But they know the betting pattern of those that wager, and they know that there will be plenty of Average Joes betting against Miami after three straight blowout losses to open the season. And this line has already dropped to 15.5 at some spots, meaning that sharp bettors probably jumped on the big number for the underdog already.

NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4

LA Chargers (-16.5) at Miami: Miami is a bad team. I don’t, however, think they will go winless during the NFL season. There have been so many bad teams in history. But only two have gone winless. The Chargers are only 1-2 on the season, and they needed OT at home against the Colts in Week 1 for their lone victory. This team seems to have a bad loss on the road every season. They are dealing with some injuries right now. And they have quite a bit of travel here and an early start time. This will be the weakest opponent the Dolphins have played so far. Some red flags for me for this game for sure. Probably enough for me to play defense, so to speak, and go in a different direction this week.

LA Rams (-9.5) vs. Tampa Bay: While this line is way lower than the Chargers line, mainly because the Buccaneers are a stronger opponent, I trust the 3-0 Rams much more than I do the Chargers right now. They are at home. Tampa Bay looks improved, but they have had an easy schedule so far and have only one win to show for it. And the Rams have won five straight meetings in this series. Like I stated, I trust this Los Angeles club more than their cross-city counterparts. I will likely take them this week.

Baltimore (-7) vs. Cleveland: Still not sold on the Ravens, although Lamar Jackson seems like the real deal at QB. Their game at Kansas City on Sunday wasn’t really as close as it seemed as the Baltimore QB hit a couple miracle hail marys in the comeback attempt. They did play hard, however, and we think they might be in a letdown situation here even though this is a division opponent. The Browns, however, haven’t looked good thus far. Cleveland has played well in the last two meetings, though, both as an underdog, winning one, and we think they will fight hard here. They need a win badly at 1-2 with only a win against the lowly Jets to their credit. I expect an all-out effort from the underdog on Sunday.

New England -7 at Buffalo: I have used the Pats on all my Survivor Pools already, so I don’t even have to sweat this game. I wouldn’t consider taking them here, anyways. The Bills are 3-0 and have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They will play their hardest in this divisional matchup on Sunday, and they are playing with a lot of confidence right now as one of the surprise NFL teams of the season.

Indianapolis (-6.5) vs. Oakland: I stated at the beginning of the season after Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement that the Colts would be OK with Jacoby Brissett under center. And now they sit at 2-1 and have been competitive in all three of their games. Oakland looked good in their Monday Night Football season-opening win vs. Denver. But they got their butts kicked the last two weeks, albeit to much better squads than this one — Kansas City and Minnesota. I think that the Raiders are improved, but I also think they are vulnerable in this game and would not argue if you were considering taking them if you didn’t like some of the other bigger favorites for whatever reason. The Colts, however, play some winnable games in the coming weeks, including at home against the Dolphins on Nov. 10.

Kansas City (-6) at Detroit: The Chiefs are my favorite team, and this game has me seriously worried. They are coming off their big win (and home opener) over the Ravens. The Lions are playing with extreme confidence right now and a nothing-to-lose attitude after consecutive wins over the Chargers and Eagles. No one expected anything from them this season, and they are playing some great football. There will be much better spots to take the Chiefs down the road.

Houston (-5) vs. Carolina: Cam Newton has been ruled out already for this week. So unlike last week, we have an opening line here. Houston is a strong 2-1 on the season and has been competitive in all three games. Carolina is coming off its first win, but that was only against the Arizona Cardinals, a team with a rookie QB and head coach that is figuring things out on the fly. I think there are much better options this week, but I expect the Texans to notch a victory this week.

Green Bay (-4.5) vs. Philadelphia: The Packers have already been bet up in this matchup from an opening number of three. When a line moves early in the week like this, it’s normally a good sign that sharp bettors like the home team here. Philly is dealing with a lot of injuries right now and hasn’t looked great so far. Green Bay is 3-0 on the strength of an improved defense. But might the Eagles play desperate here on Thursday? I normally don’t mess with Thursday night games with the short preparation time and all. And, if you hadn’t noticed, the underdog has won all three Thursday games this season so far!

Seattle (-4.5) at Arizona: Even at 2-1, I haven’t been impressed with the Seahawks so far. They need to play better before I would trust them on the road, especially this early in the season when there are better options available. Arizona will probably win 2-3 games at home this season. This could be one of them in the Battle of the Birds.

Pittsburgh -4.5 vs. Cincinnati: This divisional matchup is on Monday Night Football. The Steelers are now an afterthought at 0-3 and losing Ben Roethlisberger for the season. The Bengals are also 0-3, but they have been more competitive than people thought (2-1 against the spread this season). These teams hate each other, and both will give it their all here in primetime. I hate the Steelers on MNF from a Survivor Pool perspective.

NY Giants -3 vs. Washington: Another divisional battle I want nothing to do with. The Giants get the edge here because Washington comes in on a short week and the Giants rookie QB Daniel Jones looked good last week. But I have no interest in even watching this game much less using it for my NFL Survivor Pool.

Denver (-3) vs. Jacksonville: Another lousy matchup. What’s with this week in the NFL?! Jacksonville has extra time to prepare off Thursday Night Football and Denver is at home, but otherwise I don’t see an edge for either team in what should be a close game.

Dallas (-3) at New Orleans: The Cowboys came through for me on Week 3 as my Survivor Pool season would have been over had they lost. But they are on the road here against a Saints team that has enough talent to stay competitive until Drew Brees is back from injury.

Chicago (-2.5) vs. Minnesota: Another tight divisional battle and the smallest spread of the week (as of right after their Monday Night Football game has been completed). The Bears come in on a short week after their MNF win, and Minnesota is probably the better team overall. A coin flip.