NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 3: Opening Line Report

This is going to be a strange season for NFL Survivor Pools. It already has been. By this point in the season, normally a good chunk of players has been eliminated from pools. But there haven’t been too many big upsets in the first two weeks. In Week 2 there were six upsets against the NFL point spread. But only one of those games, the Thursday night matchup where Tampa Bay beat Carolina, was one of interest to most Survivor Pool players.

The last few years there hasn’t been too many massive favorites early in the season. But the Patriots line in their road contest at Miami in Week 2 closed at -18. And now we have history in the making in Week 3 with two betting favorites of 20+ points on the board. That has never happened before, and favorites of 20 or more points have never lost. I took the Pats on all my Survivor cards last week. With Dallas laying more than three touchdowns at home vs. Miami this week, that takes all of the guesswork out of selections for Week 3. I’m taking Dallas on all my cards. If either the Jets or the Dolphins were to pull the upset this week, it would be one of the biggest shocks in the history of sports.

Another reason why this looks like a unique season is that the Dolphins look like an epic fade team that can pull you to the end of the Survivor Pool season. This team looks potentially worse than the 0-16 Cleveland Browns team of a couple years ago. Of course, you can’t fade any team in the NFL every week because all pro teams play each team in their division twice. But you can count on the Dolphins losing just about every week this season. However, I do think they have the chance to win a game or two when all is said and done. But I also said that about the 0-16 Browns. Regardless, I think many pools will still be crowded with competitors late in the season this year, and pools of 150 or more people will probably have multiple people splitting the prize after Week 17 is completed.

So now watch Miami go out and upset the Patriots this week.

Every week in this space I go down the list of all NFL games, with my thoughts on the matchup as a viable Survivor Pool pick for that week. I will start from the biggest spread and work my way down. If you don’t want to read anymore, just pick the Cowboys or the Patriots and meet me back here next week.

New England (-23) vs. NY Jets: I don’t think the Jets are nearly as bad as the Dolphins. And I may throw a bit of scratch on both big underdogs this week as teams getting this many points have been very profitable against the spread. But the Jets are down to their third-string QB, and they can’t generate any offense, while the Pats are looking even better than last year in their Super Bowl defense.

Dallas (-21.5) vs. Miami: If you have visited this site before and read my work, you know I normally don’t mess with the Cowboys for Survivor Pools. They always seem to play down to their level of competition as a favorite. But the Dolphins have already quit on the season, and the Cowboys have looked good so far. As I stated, I used New England last week, so they aren’t available, but this would be my second choice under the Pats this week.

Minnesota (-8.5) vs. Oakland: Kirk Cousins hasn’t looked good for the Vikings. I have been impressed by their defense, though. I thought the Raiders have played well in both games. Their final score against Kansas City was a bit misleading because of turnovers. I think this line is a little too big, and I think six would be a more appropriate number, and this one would place well under the top two games for a possible Survivor Pool pick, in my opinion.

Green Bay (-8) vs. Denver: I would have to say that I like this game better than the Vikings. Last week I was visiting family in Minnesota so watched the whole Vikings vs. Packers game. I thought Aaron Rodgers would really go crazy after a hot start, but the Minnesota defense improved as the game went on. But the Green Bay D was impressive as well, and this squad is making me more of a believer every week.

Philadelphia (-7) vs. Detroit: As my admiration for the Packers has grown, so has my disdain for the Eagles. They didn’t look good on Sunday night even though they made a game of it at the end. They are banged up coming into this game. And Detroit has massively outplayed their meager preseason expectations after two weeks. Probably betting the dog in this one. And might sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well.

Kansas City (-6.5) vs. Baltimore: Much better spots to use Kansas City in the future, although I really like them in this game and have bet on them at this number already.

Tampa Bay (-6.5) vs. NY Giants: If you were a gambler and wanted to “go against the grain” this week, I couldn’t fault you for taking Tampa Bay for a Week 3 Survivor Pool pick. NY rookie QB Daniel Jones will make his first start here on the road, and Tampa Bay looks much improved this season and they are coming in with extra rest.

San Francisco (-6.5) vs. Pittsburgh: Not as hyped on the Niners here as the Chiefs or Bucs, even though they are at the same handicap. Pittsburgh is 0-2 and lost Ben Roethlisberger for the season. But this is still a talented team that many pegged for the playoffs, and now the pressure is off, so to speak, and they might just spring the upset here against a mediocre San Francisco club.

Buffalo (-6) vs. Cincinnati: The Bills are one of the biggest surprises of the young NFL season. But they have had a very easy schedule. The Bengals are going to air it out a lot this season, and they can be dangerous if the offense gets hot.

Seattle (-4.5) vs. New Orleans: This is a totally different situation than the one that the Steelers are facing. Brees should miss around six weeks. The Saints have a very capable backup in Teddy Bridgewater. And this team has tons of talent. I think they will be fine in Brees’ absence, and this spread looks like a major overreaction to the injury news.

Chicago (-4) at Washington: Every season there’s teams that make the playoffs the previous year and fail to the next. Actually, normally that trend accounts for about half the playoff field. Chicago looks like a prime candidate this season with the NFC North looking even tougher than it did entering the season. Don’t like this pick at all with the Bears playing on the road.

LA Chargers (-3.5) vs. Houston: These teams both played in crazy games last week. Too many question marks here. Take the Cowboys or Pats!

LA Rams (-3) at Cleveland: The Browns were one of the most hyped teams heading into the season. Nothing they have done so far has me impressed with them as a possible Super Bowl contender. I have been very impressed with the Rams so far as I thought they might be one of the teams due for a regression. But this game could go either way.

Indianapolis -2 vs. Atlanta: Probably taking the underdog on the moneyline here. No value here for a possible Survivor Pool pick for Week 3. The underdog has the better QB.

Tennessee (-1.5) at Jacksonville: I don’t mess with Thursday games at this point of the season. Look at how the first two turned out with both of the underdogs winning, I wouldn’t use this one for a Survivor play no matter what day it was on.

Carolina (OFF) at Arizona: This one is off the board because Cam Newton is injured. I think this is a good spot for Arizona whether Newton plays or not, but I would not recommend either team in Survivor Pools.