NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 1 Opening Line Report with Expert Predictions and Analysis

Survivor Pools are back for 2019, and Week 1 starts Thursday with the Packers/Bears season-opening matchup. Every week I will go over the opening lines for the NFL matchups with some expert predictions and advice to help you make the best NFL Survivor Pool picks for that week.

The first thing I do weekly before starting my research is to look at the opening lines the oddsmakers set for the NFL week. This gives me an idea of the biggest NFL mismatches for that week. I say it every year, but it’s important to reiterate the fact, but don’t take the oddsmakers’ lines as the ultimate indicator of the difference in talent between two teams. The bookies set the lines with their client base in mind. They know who their customers will bet on before the lines are released, and they will set the lines tailored to clients’ betting patterns as they want to get 50 percent of the handle on each side so they don’t have to worry about the result and can instead just collect on the 10 percent juice they charge on wagers.

Every week I will examine these lines and then whittle my choices down to a pool of picks I am interested in using. Then I will do further homework to come up with my picks. While this article is titled “Opening Line Report,” these numbers have been set since the NFL schedule was released. So, they have already been bet into by the sharp bettors of the world. Week 1 is unique in that way. But one thing is for certain, there will be a large amount of contestants bounced from Survivor Pools in the first few weeks. Teams are never the same as they were the year before, so it really pays to do your homework in order to survive the tumultuous start of the season.

Let’s get into the lines. I will start with the biggest numbers and work my way down.

Philadelphia (-9.5) at Washington: The Eagles, along with the Seahawks, are the biggest favorites on the board for Week 1. The Eagles have won four straight meetings between these division rivals. They have a healthy Carson Wentz under center and a very talented roster. Not much is expected of the Skins this season, and they are predicted by most to finish at the bottom of the division. I normally stay away from division games this early. However, with a lack of great matchups, the Eagles are a solid pick for Week 1.

Seattle (-9.5) vs. Cincinnati: I am probably 50/50 on these two top games this week because there isn’t a lot that looks great behind them. I would probably lean towards this game a bit more since it’s not a divisional game like the Eagles are playing. But I use multiple Survivor Pool cards, so I will be playing both of these games. These will be the most popular picks in most pools. Sometimes you just have to go with the majority. The Bengals are entering a rebuilding season with a new coach, and they are without their best offensive weapon in A.J. Green. The Hawks are always tough to beat in Seattle.

Baltimore (-7) at Miami: The Dolphins are trading starters away at random, and it looks like this team is content to throw away this season in hopes of a big turnaround in 2020. This team will surely finish with one of the worst records in the NFL. The Ravens are a playoff contender if everything goes right, but there are a couple things about this game that scare me. First, the Ravens are on the road here, and it’s tough to pick a road team at this early point in the season. Also, I wish Josh Rosen was starting here instead of Ryan Fitzpatrick. The veteran journeyman gives the team a better chance to win now. Rosen would be the better QB to fade. And also I could see the Dolphins players rising up and playing their hearts out with all the negativity that has come towards the team in the last couple weeks.

Dallas (-7) vs. NY Giants: Dallas is really one of those teams I stay away from for Survivor Pool picks, especially early in the season when there are a plethora of other choices. This team always seems to play well as an underdog and falter as a favorite. This is also a divisional matchup, although the Giants are in major rebuilding mode. It looks like Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliot could sign a contact any minute as I write this. However, will he be in game shape for Week 1? This is an easy pass for me.

New Orleans (-7) vs. Houston: I also avoid using Monday Night Football games whenever possible. This one is the first of the two Monday games for Week 1. I think New Orleans, while a playoff contender, will take a step back this year. And the Texans are the best team out of all the decent-sized underdogs this week and a playoff contender themselves. This should be a good game, and I will not be using the Saints for my Survivor Pool in Week 1.

LA Chargers (-6.5) vs. Indianapolis: The news of Andrew Luck’s retirement shocked the nation and the league. But there was also an overreaction from the betting public, and I think this line has been inflated as a result. This was supposed to be the best roster Luck has ever had around him, and that talent is still there. And Jacoby Brissett isn’t a bad QB. I expect another competitive game here. I think the Colts players might really give it their all here since the world is saying they have no chance without Luck.

Cleveland (-5.5) vs. Tennessee: We saw some big improvements from the Browns last season. But the hype for this team is way out of control heading into the season. They have a young QB and a lot of new players on the roster. Need to see this team perform well on the field before I buy into the hype, and sometime the culture of losing is hard to shake.

New England (-5.5) vs. Pittsburgh: New England starts the season slow almost every season now before they turn it on down the stretch and in the postseason. Pittsburgh can really make a statement here with a win in primetime. This will be a fun game to watch for sure, but there will be many better chances to take New England down the line.

Minnesota -4 vs. Atlanta: I think both of these teams will be much improved this season. I think the Vikings will be back in the playoffs even though they play in the toughest division in football. There are better favorites on the board than Minnesota for sure, but I do like them to win this game and start the season off strong. Couldn’t argue with someone that wanted to take them this week and avoid the two big favorites.

Kansas City (-3.5) at Jacksonville: I am a die-hard KC fan, but I have to admit I already bet on the Jags here in this game. And it seems like some sharp guys are with me on that, because this game has had “reverse line movement,” meaning the majority of the bets have come in on the Chiefs yet the line has moved the other way. I think that’s definitely a warning sign to stay away from Kansas City against a Jags team that may be revitalized now that they have a quality QB.

Chicago (-3) vs. Green Bay: This is one of the most intense rivalries in the NFL. These teams play in the toughest division in football. This one is a coin flip. Don’t worry about the outcome here for your Survivor Pool, and just kick back and enjoy the game.

New York Jets (-3) vs. Buffalo: The Jets should be better this season, and they have the better QB for sure. The Bills could be in the running for the No. 1 draft pick. But I would not trust New York here in Week 1 when there are better matchups on the board. The Jets have been disappointing fans for a long time, and I don’t want to be one of them after Week 1.

LA Rams (-3) at Carolina: Another coin flip. I have no interest in using the Rams in this road game situation.

Detroit -2.5 at Arizona: This goes against a lot of what I preach here on the blog. But I think I am going to throw a risky pick on the Lions in one of my less important pools. The Cardinals will be starting a rookie QB and they have a first-time NFL head coach. The Lions are not a good team. But they have a brutal schedule to open the season, and this is really their only winnable game. They are just a better team than the Cards, and I am going to take a risk here and take the Lions.

Tampa Bay (PK) vs. San Francisco: Wouldn’t be surprised by any result in this game. I lean to the home team but won’t be using either of these teams until I am forced into a corner later in the season when fewer options are available.

Denver (PK) at Oakland: This should be an entertaining game as the Raiders have been one of the most entertaining teams in the offseason, but not always in a good way! No interest in this one from a Survivor Pool perspective.