Week 2 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Opening Line Report

Here’s hoping that you stayed away from the Saints in Week 1! They were the most popular pick for most NFL Survivor Pools over the weekend, and they played zero defense during a 48-40 home loss to the Buccaneers. And the Sunday Night Football game saw the Bears nearly upset the Packers, a result which, coupled with the Saints loss, would have knocked out more than 50 percent of my pool on the first Sunday.

I was extremely confident in the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1. And although I did like the Saints as my secondary pick, I was way less confident in that matchup, as I wrote about last week on this blog. Thankfully, I decided to go with the Ravens on three cards and the Saints on only one. If I hadn’t busted four cards in Week 1 2017 on the Patriots, I probably would have played the Ravens on every card. Baltimore rolled against the Bills, and the result was never in question. This is the most confident I have been about a Week 1 matchup in several years, and it was one of the easiest NFL Survivor Pool wins I have had this early in the season. I’m more than happy to give up one of my four Survivor cards in order to lose a big chunk of competitors because of the Saints loss.

As of this writing, there are still two games to be played for Week 1: the Monday Night Football double-header, and both the Lions and Rams had several backers in my weekly Survivor Pool. So, for those of us that already advanced to Week 2, let’s hope for some more carnage tonight!

Every week in this spot I will go over the NFL opening lines and give some analysis to put together a group of teams that I will further research as potential Survivor Pool picks later in the week (we will release our official picks, from three former winners, on Wednesday or Thursday each week on this blog). I will normally release this report on Mondays or Tuesdays, and I usually analyze only favorites of 3.5 points or greater. Generally, favorites of three or fewer points win games at a slightly better rate than a coin flip.

The Week 2 lines were released after the Sunday games. These numbers will be volatile the next 24 hours, especially since there are four teams that have yet to play their Week 1 games. The Houston vs. Tennessee matchup is currently off the board because of Titans QB Marcus Mariota, who was injured Week 1 against the Dolphins. His status is questionable. Houston should open as a small favorite if Mariota isn’t expected to play. Although I don’t like to take road teams this early in the season, I might be temped by the Texans if the Tennessee signal-caller doesn’t lace up his cleats.

Washington -5.5 vs. Indianapolis: The Redskins looked pretty good in a Week 1 trouncing of the Cardinals. You have to consider the opponent here, however. The Cardinals could likely be one of the worst teams in the league this season. The Colts looked decent in Week 1. They did lose at home to the Bengals, but QB Andrew Luck is back and he looked good in his first game action in quite a while. This team is a big question mark for me heading into the season. With Luck they have a chance to win any game. But without him this is probably a three- or four-win team. The Skins are at home and are the better team, but I think there are better Survivor Pool options on the board for Week 2, and I won’t be considering this matchup for any of my pools.

Atlanta -5 vs. Carolina: This is a divisional matchup, so I will probably stay away from this one as well. I do think the Falcons will bounce back here with a win. They were in the game until the end in the Thursday night opener vs. the defending champs. Their red zone offense failed them again, but they have a very winnable game here. I just don’t see this team starting off 0-2. Carolina took care of business, but it was against a Cowboys team that doesn’t do much for me. They scored only 16 points in the win. Their offense will probably have to do a bit better to keep up with the Falcons in their home opener. I will throw the Falcons in my pool of considerations for Week 2, but it’s very doubtful I will use them this week.

LA Chargers -7.5 at Buffalo: While I don’t really agree with all the preseason hype on the Chargers – I still think the Chiefs are the team to beat in the AFC West, and I’m not just saying that because I’m a die-hard fan – they are a very solid squad and they will not want to start off what should be one of their best seasons in years with a 0-2 mark. They face a Buffalo team that is probably the worst team in the NFL this year. The Bills don’t have a QB, their offensive line is in shambles, and their defense looked like a sieve in Week 1. There will be a big contingent of Survivor Pool players who will simply fade the Bills every week, ala the 2016 and 2017 Browns, and probably have success. However, I am throwing this matchup out for my consideration as I don’t take road teams this early in the Survivor Pool season, and the Chargers are a team that has historically been extremely erratic.

Pittsburgh -5 vs. Kansas City: Now here is a matchup I am hyped about. As soon as the lines were released, I placed some money on the Steelers minus the points in this matchup. First of all, they own the Chiefs. They have won six of the last seven meetings. Kansas City looked good in their Week 1 upset in Los Angeles. However, they had some luck on Chargers special teams blunders that led to 14 points for KC, and the game should have been a lot closer (not to mention a ton of dropped passes by LA). The Chiefs open with two straight on the road, and you get the feeling they would be more than happy with a split instead of the 0-2 start that most predicted when looking at their early-season schedule. They already earned the first victory, and I don’t see them going into Pittsburgh with a chance to steal a win. The Steelers looked bad in Week 1, but this team is nearly unbeatable at home, and backup RB James Connor filled in more than admirably for Le’Veon Bell with 135 yards and two TDs. As of now, I am planning to use Pittsburgh on at least one of my cards.

New Orleans -8.5 vs. Cleveland: The Browns already showed in Week 1 that they will be no fade team in 2018! They didn’t exactly break their winless streak, but they managed a tie against their division rivals. Tampa Bay put up 48 points on the Saints in Week 1. Until further notice (i.e. after I see them play some defense in a game), I will not consider taking this team under any circumstance (at least early in the season). Let’s hope for Saints fans that it was simply a bad game. If Tampa Bay can score 48 against them then what are the Falcons going to do at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 3?

LA Rams -10 vs. Arizona: This will be the most popular NFL Survivor Pool pick for Week 2. This is the biggest favorite on the betting board, and favorites of 10 or more points generally avoid the upset at an extremely high rate of success. The Rams, as I write this, are preparing for their Monday Night Football matchup at the Raiders. As long as nothing crazy happens in that game regarding injuries then I think the Rams are the strongest play on the board for Week 2. They will come into this matchup on a short week because of the MNF matchup, but the Cardinals put in the second-worst performance in the NFL in Week 1 and this team looks like a solid fade candidate for the 2018-19 NFL season. I have three cards running after losing one with the Saints in Week 1, and it’s likely at least two of those cards will be on the Rams.

Philadelphia -3 at Tampa Bay: The jury is still out on the Bucs. They looked very good in their Week 1 upset in New Orleans, and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 400+ yards and four TDs, making fans forget about the Jameis Winston suspension… for now. Tampa Bay comes into this game with a lot of confidence, and this will be their home opener. Once again, I won’t take a road team in Survivor Pools this early in the season, but even if this game was in Philly I would be hesitant after how good the Tampa Bay offense looked in Week 1 (and how bad the Eagles offense looked!).

Denver -4.5 vs. Oakland: By all accounts, Oakland is going to struggle this season, but this is a team that I want to see play for a couple of weeks before I decide whether to fade or follow in Survivor Pools. They will come in on a short week for this divisional matchup, but I will be staying far away from this one. The Broncos looked good in Week 1, but that was against a Seahawks team with tepid expectations for 2018.

Dallas -3.5 vs. NY Giants: The Cowboys are one of those teams I normally stay away from in most of their matchups. This squad always seems to fail under strong expectations, and they normally play their best in the underdog role. Both of these clubs looked lousy in Week 1. I have no interest in this matchup from both a betting perspective and a Survivor Pool perspective.