Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Opening Line Report

Survivor Pools are back for 2018, and Week 1 starts Thursday with the Atlanta/Philadelphia season-opening matchup. If you are unfamiliar with this blog, I can fill you in on some of what we will do to help you win your NFL Survivor Pool in the 2018 season. Every week I will provide my Opening Line Report, normally on Tuesdays, as I will look at the lines and give analysis to try and whittle down the matchups to a pool of playable games for Survivor Pools. Also, on Tuesdays or Wednesdays, my colleague, Kyle McCarthy, will post his weekly YouTube video with picks and predictions. Then on Thursdays we will provide our official picks from three former winners.

While this is my “Opening Line Report,” these betting odds have been out ever since the NFL schedules were released a few months ago. They have been available for betting for quite a while, and sharp bettors and team changes have moved the lines from the original released numbers. It’s never a good idea to take these betting numbers as gospel. They should be used only as a guideline. The oddsmakers make their lines according to the betting patterns of their clients instead of as a barometer of the quality of these teams. But the lines are a good starting point with which to base your picks on. Favorites of 10 or more points, of which we have none in Week 1, are normally very solid options. The lower the point spread, the lower that team’s chances to win are. Spreads around 3 historically have been about as reliable for NFL Survivor Pool players as a coin flip.

Making successful NFL Survivor Pool picks early in the season is a treacherous endeavor. There is so much turnover from season to season. While we can normally count on teams like the Patriots and Steelers to win 10 or more games, there is a lot of fluctuation from year to year in the NFL. Each season there is an average of six teams that made the playoffs the previous year that don’t make it back to the postseason. The first six weeks will see many Survivor Pool competitors bounced from their pools. For me the early part of the season is the trickiest time to make winning Survivor Pool picks. Even when I have fewer teams to work with later in the season because of using many of the best teams, at least I have a better feeling about who the good and bad teams are in the NFL by Weeks 7 or 8. I normally find that if I make it past Week 7 or 8 that I can cruise far in the season fairly easily even with limited teams. Knowledge is power when competing in an NFL Survivor Pool.

Weekly in this space I will go down the list of favorites, normally teams that are favored by 3.5 points or more, and give my analysis on what I think of that team as a viable Survivor Pool pick. Week 1 has been incredibly tough to gauge the last couple years with no big favorites on the betting board. But Week 1 in 2018 looks pretty manageable as there are some big spreads all across the NFL betting board. This week there are seven games where the favorite is laying 5.5 or more points. These are the games we will look at this week as we are confident our Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool picks will come from this group of games.

This week I will start with the biggest spreads and run down the list.

New Orleans -9.5 vs. Tampa Bay: Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston is suspended for the first three games of the season, and journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the starter until he returns. Tampa Bay was a popular pick for the postseason in 2017, but they had a very disappointing year. This team does have some weapons on offense, however, and some nice talent on defense. I do think that this team was better than they showed on the field last year. However, losing Winston for the first three weeks really hurts, especially with a brutal set of opponents during that stretch. New Orleans is a very solid team with few weaknesses.  They won a playoff game last year and played well in their Divisional Round loss to the Vikings. They should again be one of the NFC’s top teams, and they are a very solid option for Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool picks. I am using four cards this season and will likely use the Saints on two of them, if not three.

Green Bay -8 vs. Chicago: This is one of the biggest rivalries in the NFL. However, it has been one-sided as of late. In fact, Green Bay has won 14 of the last 16 meetings. QB Aaron Rodgers is back under center for the Packers, and he takes this team from a middling squad to a contender with his presence alone. The Bears just made a monster move to sign defensive savant Khalil Mack from Oakland, but they are really lacking talent across the roster and are a year or two away from contending for a playoff spot, especially in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. Green Bay is probably a solid pick for Week 1. You never know how Rodgers’ health will hold up during the season, and this team will be worthless to Survivor Pool players later in the season if he goes down. So, it may be a good idea to use them while he is healthy early in the season. However, I am just uneasy using a rivalry game in Week 1 as both teams will be fired up to start strong. I will not be using Green Bay for Week 1 but would not argue with anyone who wanted to use them. They are much more talented than the Bears, who have tons of questions across the entire roster.

Baltimore -7 vs. Buffalo: I am really interested in the Ravens here for my NFL Survivor Pool picks for Week 1. The Bills made the playoffs last season for the first time in forever, but this squad is back to a major rebuild. They are one of my contenders to have the worst record in the NFL this year. They traded their quarterback, who was more than decent for them, Tyrod Taylor. They lost a lot on the offensive line. They just traded QB AJ McCarron to the Raiders this morning, and now they are left with rookie Josh Allen – who seems like a long-term project – and journeyman Nathan Peterman. A starter for Week 1 hasn’t been named as of this writing, but if it is Allen then that makes this an even stronger pick. The Ravens should be hungry this year after barely missing the postseason in 2017 with a 9-7 record. Joe Flacco has looked good in the preseason, and he seems to have a fire lit under his butt after the drafting of his eventual successor, former Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson. The Ravens look like a very solid pick in Week 1.

New England -6.5 vs. Houston: The Patriots have to slow down at some point. They lost a lot during the offseason and added some new parts. This is the way this team operates every season, and it always seems to work well. But that’s because they have one of the best-ever QB and coach combinations. Last season I put three of my Survivor Pool cards on the Patriots in Week 1 since the defending champ has dominated the Thursday night opener since its inception. They, of course, were upset by Kansas City at home on in Week 1. New England should be very good again this season, and they are in one of the worst divisions in the NFL so they are almost guaranteed to go to the playoffs. But Houston is healthy now and they have one of – if not the – most exciting young QBs in the league in Deshaun Watson. He was really setting the league on fire last year before his injury, and this team suffered fallen soldiers all across the roster with brutal injury luck. They come into the season generally healthy, and this team has a chance to be very good. I want no part of the Patriots in Week 1.

Detroit -6.5 vs. New York Jets: The Jets played well above expectations last season. They came into each game with a real blue-collar attitude and competed in the trenches. They will likely be starting a rookie QB this season in Sam Darnold, and that is going to provide some rough patches and possible ugly losses. But this team should play hard-nosed football in every game, and this is a dangerous team to go against, especially against an unpredictable team like Detroit that could be anywhere from a five-win to a 10-win team. Easy pass.

Minnesota -6 vs. San Francisco: The Vikings should win this game. I would be very nervous, however, if I picked them in Week 1. Jimmy Garoppolo did nothing but win after being traded to the Niners from New England last season. This team should be much improved this season, and they could be a legit playoff contender. And who can forget at the start of the 2015 season when the Niners upset the Vikings in the season opener, knocking many out of NFL Survivor Pools in Week 1. I do think Minnesota will take care of business here, but I am probably too shaky on this matchup to take the favorite here.

Pittsburgh -5.5 at Cleveland: No thanks; I want no part of this one. This game has several red flags for me. Divisional game. Road favorite. Public line. The Browns should be much, much better than last season, and there is a good chance that they win six or more games. The Steelers are probably a bit overrated as well. Cleveland wants to get off to a strong start after their 0-16 season, and with a much stronger squad they have a chance to be competitive in this home opener.