NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 6: Opening Line Report

Last week was one of the toughest I can remember for NFL Survivor Pool players as there were only a few viable options available and not many big favorites on the NFL betting board. I wrote in this spot last week that I favored the Eagles vs. the Cardinals as my top selection but then realized I had used them on my lone card a couple weeks ago vs. the Giants. So my only real option was to take the Steelers, who proceeded to lay an egg at home vs. Jacksonville. I did state that that matchup really worried me, and those fears became reality after a five-interception performance by Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger.

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Despite the fact I am done with my Survivor Pool season, I will still be here to provide advice right through Week 17. I doubt many pools will last that long this season. My pool is down to about 35 people now after starting around 200. But there are lots of second-chance pools out there and also many pools where you can lose a game and still survive. As long as the interest is there I will continue to provide advice.

Every week I look at the biggest favorites on the board as the first step in the process of making my NFL Survivor Pool picks. I normally circle four or five games and then do further research in order to formulate the best pick for the week. Just as Week 5 was one of the toughest weeks I have seen in awhile, Week 6 looks to be one of the easiest. As of this writing there are five teams favored by nine or more points. There are a couple other decent favorites, and if QB Derek Carr comes back for Oakland there is a great chance they will be a big favorite at home vs. San Diego.

Week 6 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Opening Lines

Houston -10 vs. Cleveland: The Browns were a team that I had some hopes for coming into the season. I didn’t think that they were playoff bound or anything, but I did think that they had the ability to win five or so games and that they would be a decent team to bet on. They started out the season with some promise with a nice effort at home in a loss to Pittsburgh. But it has been all downhill from there, and I don’t know if there has been a worse rock bottom moment for this team than last week’s home loss to the Jets. Houston is reeling from a home loss to the Chiefs Sunday night in a game where they lost JJ Watt for the season. But this game seems like the perfect remedy for the Texans to get back on the winning track.

New England -9 at New York Jets: The surprising Jets are a blue collar team that is coming to play every week. This was the No. 1 fade team for NFL Survivor Pool players entering the season, but now look at this squad as it is in a three-way tie with these Patriots and the Bills atop the AFC East at 3-0 and riding a three-game winning streak. I have been real impressed with the effort, but the wins have come against some really shaky competition. On Sunday they will face a New England team that hasn’t yet lived up to expectations yet but which has had an extra few days to prepare for this game off their Thursday win over Tampa Bay. I feel about as comfortable in New England or Houston as Week 6 picks as I have for any matchups this season.

Atlanta -11 vs. Miami: This looks like another real solid option for Survivor Pool players. This team stunk it up in their loss to Buffalo two weeks ago, but they had their bye last week and should be extra motivated for a win here. While the Falcons were taking time off the Dolphins were dealing with some off-field distractions after a very incriminating video of their (former) offensive line coach surfaced on Sunday. I could definitely see this one being a one-sided affair.

Baltimore -7 vs. Chicago: This line is off the board at many sportsbooks because the Bears are about to host the Vikings for Week 5 Monday Night Football. With so many good matchups on the board this week, there is no reason to make the riskier play on the Ravens here, even if hypothetically the Bears entire offensive line went down with injury on Monday night. This one is an easy pass for me!

Washington -10 vs. San Francisco: The Niners haven’t won a game yet, but this team has been pretty competitive and they have lost four straight by three or fewer points each. However, Washington is off its bye and the extra rest will help them here. I don’t really agree with the massive line here and think 7.5 or 8 would be more appropriate, but the Redskins should still win this one by at least a TD. I do like the other three big favorites a lot better than this matchup.

Oakland (off) vs. LA Chargers: If QB Carr plays then this becomes a strong possibility for a Week 6 Survivor Pool pick. We probably won’t know his status until later in the week. Oakland was one of my top bets last week and they really looked lost without him — I thought the team might rise up in his absence, but it seems as if the opposite has happened. I’m really not quite sure what to make of this team right now, but if Carr comes back Sunday then I think this team goes all out in order to avoid the possibility of a 0-4 slide, especially when they see Kansas City sitting at the top of the division alone at 5-0.

Denver -11.5 vs. NY Giants: The Broncos are another team off the bye. Things are looking pretty bleak in New York as the Giants are now 0-5 and they lost their best playmaker, Odell Beckham Jr., to a season-ending injury on Sunday. But I would advise those wanting to make the Giants their new New York fade team to proceed with caution. This is a team that still has a lot of talent, and I could see them rebounding to win four or five games this season. I wouldn’t put this team in the same category as the Browns, Colts, Niners and other bottom-of-the-barrel teams. New York has been competitive, and they have lost close games in each of the last three weeks. I think they will continue to compete, and this is another matchup I would avoid among the big favorites.