NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4: Opening Line Report

Every season there is a Sunday I dub “Black Sunday” where a massive amount of NFL Survivor Pool players get bounced from their competition and this past Sunday was almost one of those days. The carnage started in the early London game as the Jags demolished the Ravens, who were 4-point favorites. In the early games the Bills beat the Broncos, the Bears edged the Steelers, the Jets downed the Dolphins and the Saints upset the Panthers. There were a couple other games among the early bunch that were really close. The No. 2 most popular pick, Green Bay over Cincinnati, went to OT in the afternoon games, and the Packers were able to pull it out. If that game would have lost then it would have truly been a “Black Sunday” for Survivor Pool players.

Personally I had the Eagles and Patriots for my Week 3 picks. At one point late in the early games I was sure my season was done as both teams were behind late. Some late-game heroics in both contests saved me. This is why I love NFL Survivor Pools. Your entire season can change in the blink of an eye. My adrenaline was really pumping there at the end of my games.

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My pool has been cut in half already in three weeks and I have two cards out of those remaining participants, so it’s time to kick it into overdrive since I feel I now have a decent chance to wind up in the money with two tickets alive.

As I do every week, I will go down a list of opening lines in the NFL and comment on any teams that look interesting for NFL Survivor Pool picks. That normally means I will be looking at teams that are favored by at least 3.5 points.

Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Opening Lines

Green Bay -7 vs. Chicago (Thursday): I warned readers in this space last week to beware of taking the Packers, and the Bengals almost made me look like a genius. There is just something wrong with this Packers team, and it might be more than the myriad of injuries that this team has suffered to start the season. This team always seems to start slow. Don’t forget that this team started 4-6 last year before finding their mojo late in the season to make a run towards the playoffs. Green Bay, however, has won six of the last seven meetings between these teams. But I generally don’t like to use Thursday games as there is too much uncertainty with the short turnaround (not to mention both teams played an OT game last week). And with the short week you just can’t trust some of these Packers players to come back from their injuries. This one is a pass for me, although many did take Green Bay last week so that could pay off for you if you take them and if there were some other upsets on Sunday.

New England -8.5 vs. Carolina: New England also doesn’t look right. Even though I took them last week for my Survivor Pool I mentioned in this space that I expected a much closer game than the spread would indicate. Carolina looked really bad last week in their home loss to New Orleans. I do have the Pats available on one card but won’t be using them this week as I just don’t trust either of these teams that much right now. I don’t think the Panthers are as bad as they have looked early. I am looking to bet Carolina plus the points this week, so that definitely rules the Pats out on my Survivor Pool as I think this might be another close one.

Dallas -7.5 vs. LA Rams: For superstitious reasons I normally stay away from Dallas games for my NFL Survivor Pool. This team usually plays well as an underdog and then stinks it up as a favorite. Last season was an aberration from that pattern, but then they looked ugly to start off this season under heavy expectations. But they sure showed a spark in the second half on Monday Night Football at Arizona. Maybe this team will start to play better. But they are on a short week against a Rams team that has shown it can put points on the scoreboard. I won’t be picking Dallas this week, but if they continue to play well I may use this team in the not-so-distant future.

Jacksonville -3.5 at New York Jets: Sunday was the perfect reason why I tell readers never to blindly fade one team. This has worked pretty well the last couple years with the Browns, but there is no chance in a million years I would have ever taken a crappy team like the Dolphins in Week 3 when so many better teams were available. The Jets showed that they are willing to play together as a team, and that was a darn impressive win on Sunday. I actually like them again here on the betting line as I think they can build off that effort. I think this has a chance to be a close game.

Cincinnati -3.5 at Cleveland: I thought we would see a lot of improvement from the Browns this year, and we have seen glimpses of that at points in their first couple games. But that was an ugly defensive effort on Sunday in allowing 31 to the Colts. They made the game respectable at the end, but I’m still salty because this was one of my top picks of the week for betting. This team needs to cut down on the turnovers if they want any chance to be competitive. That being said, I would not touch the Bengals this week for Survivor Pools as this is a really bad idea to back what looks like a 4- or 5-win team best-case scenario.

Atlanta -8 vs. Buffalo: I think the Falcons are a decent option this week. This is probably one of about three matchups I am looking at for the week. Atlanta has looked pretty good and is the only NFC team at 3-0. But they have had a couple close games and could easily be 1-2. But they are playing as well as anybody right now overall, and they are at home here against a nonconference opponent. These teams don’t play often, but Atlanta has won four straight meetings. Buffalo won only three games on the road last season while the Falcons are 8-2 in their last 10 at home, playoffs last year included.

Tampa Bay -3 vs. New York Giants: I wanted to mention the Bucs here because this team is a dark horse pick for me this week. Despite their blowout loss Week 3 at Minnesota, I still think that this is a solid team that is going to win more games than they lose from their home schedule this season. The Giants are in a tough spot off a hard-fought divisional game against the Eagles that saw them lose in heartbreaking fashion. Teams that start the season 0-3 almost never make the playoffs, and that means their season is essentially sunk. I could see them putting up a flat effort here, and I think the Bucs are the much better team.

Arizona -7 vs. San Francisco: I like the way the Niners came back from a big deficit on Thursday to make a game of it against the Rams. I think that this team is headed in the right direction. This is probably my top underdog bet of the week, so obviously I hate the Cardinals this week as a Survivor Pool pick for Week 4.

Seattle -13 vs. Indianapolis: This will probably be the most popular pick this week, and for good reason. Favorites of 10+ points are very rarely upset. I am not too impressed with the Seahawks this season, however. They have looked pretty awful, but this is a great spot for them to bounce back. They are normally a very good team at home, and this is the perfect opponent for them to “get right” against. I will likely be taking the Hawks on one of my cards but am not confident enough in them to post them for both picks this week.

Kansas City -7 vs. Washington (Monday): There will be a great home-field advantage for Kansas City on Monday Night Football this week. This team looks like, in my eyes, the best team in the NFL right now, and they are playing with a ton of confidence. The Redskins look very good, however, and they just beat the other best team in the AFC West and made it look easy. I think that this spread should be smaller and I expect a reasonably close game here. I think Kansas City will win, but I just have a bad feeling about this one from a Survivor Pool perspective, and I will pass on this matchup.