NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 1: Opening Line Report

Even though the NFL lines for Week 1 have been out since the schedules were released, I will title this article as the “Opening Line Report” for consistency since this will be a weekly feature at SurvivorPoolPicks.com. Every week of the NFL regular season I will look at the matchups involving big favorites (normally of three or more points, although in certain cases I may comment on other games as well) with analysis on whether I like or dislike the matchup as a potential NFL Survivor Pool pick. My colleagues and I (all former pool winners) will release our official picks on Thursdays right here on this blog throughout the season.

If you aren’t familiar with this blog and/or my NFL Survivor Pool strategy, the first thing I do each week is to look at the opening lines for all the NFL games for that particular week. I want to preface this by stating what might not be obvious to many new (and some veteran) Survivor Pool players: the oddsmakers lines should not be considered the gold standard of the strength of a Survivor Pool pick because the bookies set the lines according to how they think their client base will bet the game and not the relative strength or weakness of the actual teams involved in the matchup. Just as a hypothetical example, for the Week 1 matchup for the Chiefs at New England the bookies posted a pretty big line on this game (it opened at 7.0 and had moved as high as 9.0 due to heavy betting on the defending world champs). The bookies may not think that the Pats will beat the Chiefs by than many points but instead know their clients will bet on New England so they are setting a line that will give them the best chance at even betting on both sides of the game. If they have 50/50 betting on both sides of the game (a dream scenario for bookies despite the fact it rarely happens) then they are guaranteed a profit because of the vig, or commission, they charge for placing bets.

Therefore I always use the weekly point spread as more of a guideline than gospel. My weekly NFL Survivor Pool strategy involves circling the games I am interested in based on the opening lines (I am normally looking for teams at least -4.0 and, of course the larger the favorite the more attractive the matchup potentially is). Once I have this list of potential picks then I do further research on these matchups during the week to formulate my NFL Survivor Pool picks for the week (I normally play multiple cards in each pool in order to give myself the best chance to advance and win the pool. I have finished in the money twice in the last seven years, and I made it to Week 17 last season before losing in the final week).

I also wanted to mention one thing about my overall NFL Survivor Pool strategy. I know a lot of people will tell you to save the best teams for later in the season. Maybe this is a good strategy for a really good NFL handicapper. But I believe you take the best possible pick that week as the goal is give yourself the best possible chance to advance past that week. This strategy normally gets me through the turbulent start to the season when many Survivor Pool players get bounced and then I rely on my handicapping skills midseason to get me close to the prize. That kind of bit me in the butt last year because there were seven people left in my pool heading into Week 17 and I had the poorest teams left to pick from and of course was the only person bounced in the final week. But I still had a couple solid options; this time it just didn’t work out.

So now I will get into the opening lines. These lines have actually been bet into for a few months already, and the numbers have moved not only based on betting action but also injuries. I will go down the list in chronological order. Also, remember that we will have plenty of Survivor Pool content on the site every week during the season to help you make the best pick possible. So be sure to check back all through the season if you feel like you need a second opinion!

Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Opening Lines

New England -8 vs. Kansas City (Thursday): I will just say it right now because I have been thinking about Week 1 picks already for a couple months and my mind probably won’t change in a week and a half, but I am probably taking New England for most of my cards Week 1. I don’t think this will be a hugely popular pick because the Chiefs were 12-4 last season and they are a Super Bowl contender again this year. And the Patriots just lost top WR Julian Edelman, most likely for the season, in preseason Week 3, a factor that has and will continue to get heavy press. Kansas City lost in the playoffs to these Patriots two years ago, and New England is an even better team now. If this was a normal regular-season game I might be wary of the Pats, but this is a big game and with the Patriots sharp and focused I don’t think the Chiefs have any realistic shot at winning this one. And oh yeah, the defending Super Bowl champ has never lost one of these opening games on Thursday at home. The Pats would be nice to have in your back pocket later on in the season, but I take Survivor Pools week by week and I am just trying to get to Week 2 as my main goal.

Buffalo -6.5 vs. New York Jets: If you haven’t been paying attention in the offseason, the Jets are THE new fade team in 2017, taking the place of the Cleveland Browns, the fade team standard the last couple years. New York got rid of most of their solid veterans, and they are a team lacking in talent maybe more than any squad we have seen in years. This is going to be a really bad team. However, I will have no part in this matchup for my Week 1 Survivor Pool pick. Fade teams are great, but even the worst teams in the NFL lose a game or two, and these Bills aren’t going to be very good either. Las Vegas bookies have tabbed the Buffalo “over/under” of total wins this season at 6.5, one of the lowest totals in the league. There are some people that will fade the Jets each week regardless of opponent, but I will not be one of them and will be picking and choosing my spots.

Atlanta -7 at Chicago: I’m a real believer in the Super Bowl hangover. Teams that lose the big game often struggle the following season. We don’t have to look too far back for one of the most glaring examples as the Carolina Panthers lost Super Bowl 50 in 2016 with a 15-1 regular-season record and then they missed the playoffs completely last season with a 6-10 record. The Falcons lost the Super Bowl in a really humiliating fashion, and this is a team I will be watching very closely and probably staying away from in Survivor Pools until I see that they are playing well on the field for at least a few games. The Bears should be a bad team this season, but they will win a handful of games. I likely wouldn’t use Atlanta anyways since they are on the road and I don’t like to use road teams early in the season.

Houston -4.5 vs. Jacksonville: Every year the Jaguars seem to be the sexy pick to have a breakout season, and every year they disappoint. Is this the season they put it all together? Possibly. This team has a lot of talent, but they are also dealing with a QB controversy. Houston is one of those teams that could win from six to 10 games, and either result would not be too surprising. This is the kind of matchup you want to look seriously at in Week 8 when you have used many good teams, but it’s way too early to take a risk like this involving two very volatile teams with a lot of question marks.

Pittsburgh -9 at Cleveland: This will probably be the most popular of the NFL Survivor Pool picks for Week 1. The last couple years fading the Cleveland Browns blindly each week could get you pretty far in your pool. However, I do think that this team will be better this year. They are probably good for between 3-5 wins. This probably won’t be one of them, but I just don’t like taking a road team this early in the season. I’m pretty confident that the Steelers will win this one easily, however, and may decide to use them on at least one Week 1 Survivor card. I’ll bet the vast majority of pool competitors will be on this game, and it could really help your position to avoid this one and reap the rewards if there is an upset. I do think this is a bit of a public line as the bookies normally set lines according to what happened last year instead of the talent level for the current season, and I would say this line should be closer to -7.0.

Indianapolis -3 at LA Rams: I will just comment briefly on this one. Indy QB Andrew Luck is questionable and no one really knows his status for the start of the season. That will probably become clearer as we get closer to the game, but I will have no part in this matchup as Luck will probably be well under 100 percent healthy if he does play and the Colts are a pretty lousy team overall and on the road in this matchup.

Green Bay -3 vs. Seattle: These teams always play tough against each other, and this game is probably a coin flip. The only ones taking Green Bay in Week 1 Survivor Pools will be full-fledged homer Cheeseheads. Stay far away.

Carolina -6 at San Francisco: This one will probably get a little action in Survivor Pools. The Panthers are better than their 6-10 record last season and they will want to get off to a good start to the season after a close loss to Denver in their opener last year (coupled with an overall 1-5 start) derailed their season from the start. The Niners should be a better team this year, however, and I don’t think they are an automatic fade like last season. If the Panthers were at home they would be a real serious consideration but they have to earn my trust on the road, where they went only 2-6 last season, including losses to New Orleans and Tampa Bay.

Dallas -3.5 vs. New York Giants: First, the Giants beat the Cowboys twice last season, including in Week 1, so that is one major red flag here. The Cowboys are one of those teams that seem to disappoint when expectations are high and excel when there are no expectations. Last season was an exception. But they already have some negative karma due to some offseason off-field issues, and as a result RB Ezekiel Elliott is probably out for this game and more. Plus, this is a divisional matchup. Tons here that screams “Stay Away” for this game.

Minnesota -3.5 vs. New Orleans (Monday): A couple professional handicappers I know are pretty high on New Orleans this season, and Minnesota has lots of questions surrounding the team’s chances for success. I think this is another coin flip, and to me New Orleans looks attractive on the betting line as this game looks to me like a field goal game either way. I couldn’t advise anyone to take the Vikings on Monday Night Football for Survivor Week 1 picks.

Denver -3.5 vs. LA Chargers (Monday): It is going to take some getting used to typing “Los Angeles Chargers”! This is the second act of the Week 1 NFL Monday Night Football doubleheader. This one has the same line as the first MNF game, but I actually like the Broncos a bit better in this matchup than the Vikings in the first game. However, I will stay away from this one. Denver is not a very good team overall. They have a strong defense, but the offense will struggle and there are big questions at quarterback. The Chargers are a big unknown this season. Some “experts” have them as a playoff team and some have them last place in the tough AFC West. Will have to see more from both of these teams before I make a Survivor Pool pick for or against them.