NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 13: Opening Line Report

I have said it before and I will say it again: this season is probably going to see an unprecedented amount of players in Survivor Pools make it through Week 17. Heck, just fading the Browns and Jaguars (or Chicago or San Francisco) can probably propel a player through the end of the regular season. Chalk reigned supreme again in Week 12, and in my pool, down to 12 players, not one person was eliminated. This is a stark contrast from last season when so many were knocked out early and many pools were finished early in the season. It has been pretty smooth sailing for most players the last few weeks. But you get the feeling one of those weeks where there are a ton of upsets is coming up soon. That’s why it’s as important as ever for those left in their pools to make the best picks possible down the stretch.

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Every week my first task in order to formulate my NFL Survivor Pool picks for the week is to look at the opening NFL lines and eliminate teams I am not interested in potentially using for the week. I narrow down the list of candidates to between 3-5 teams and then do further research in order to come up with my picks.

NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 13 Opening Line Report

Dallas -3 at Minnesota (Thursday): I have already used Dallas as have most Survivor Pool players that are still alive in their pools. Even if I hadn’t, I would probably be looking elsewhere. These Thursday games are always tough for Survivor Pools as teams don’t have enough time for preparation, and that can even out a talent mismatch. The home team also usually has an edge in these short turnaround games.

Denver -4.5 at Jacksonville: After the Sunday day games I was definitely planning on taking Denver for my Week 13 NFL Survivor Pool pick. But after that OT marathon game against Kansas City I will probably stay away. That was an amazingly physical game, and both teams played their hearts out. I think the emotional and physical hangover from that game makes this a really bad spot for Denver to go on the road and be assured the win.

Atlanta -3.5 vs. Kansas City: For the same reason I don’t like the Broncos for this week I would consider Atlanta as the Chiefs are probably due for a letdown after that crazy Sunday night game. But I do think the Chiefs are a better overall team than Atlanta. This is a tough one. Thankfully I have already used Atlanta as has most of my pool, so I don’t have to worry about handicapping this tough matchup.

Green Bay -4.5 vs. Houston: As of this writing the Packers have yet to play their Monday Night Football matchup in Philly. Green Bay is another team I have already used. But if I hadn’t, I would have to see how they performed on MNF before I would consider them. If they looked really good and still had playoff hopes after that game then they might be a possibility. But with the way they have been playing I would have serious reservations about using them vs. Houston. But the Texans have looked really bad lately. If Green Bay has something to play for then they probably win this one.

New Orleans -4.5 over Detroit: I haven’t used the Saints yet so they are a strong possibility for me this week. I like the way they looked on Sunday in putting up 49 on a pretty solid Los Angeles defense. I want an offense that is in good form for my weekly pick, and the Saints would definitely fit the bill. The Lions are 7-4 while the Saints are just 5-6, but Detroit is only 2-3 on the road. New Orleans needs this game a lot more than the Lions, and I am pretty confident that they will come out on top here at home. This team is in my pool of potential picks for the week.

New England -13.5 vs. Los Angeles: Not going to spend a lot of time on this one as the Pats are long gone for me and all others in most pools. If you have been saving them for some reason then good for you for lasting this long!

Baltimore -3.5 vs. Miami: I have not been a big believer in the Ravens, but they have won three of four and are playing some good football right now. Miami has won six straight, however, and is playing as good as anyone in the league not named New England. This matchup is too close to call, and I will stay away from this one, although I do think the home team will prevail here, so they may be a decent option for anyone that is lacking in Week 13 options.

Oakland -3 vs. Buffalo: I can’t knock the Raiders and they have been playing excellent football. However, I just get the feeling that this team is going to see a regression down the stretch of the regular season. I just bet on Buffalo for this matchup (I got +3.5 at Bovada), and I will have no part of the Raiders this week. This game is more important to Buffalo, and I think they will challenge for the win.

San Diego -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay: The Chargers are a team I just don’t trust. No lead is safe with them and they are pretty inconsistent, although they have been playing well lately and are in the wild-card hunt. But I think Tampa Bay is a team on the way up, and they have scored two pretty impressive wins the last two weeks against playoff-caliber teams. I probably won’t use the Chargers all season for my Survivor Pool, but I won’t even consider them this week.

Pittsburgh -5.5 vs. New York Giants: Another one where I am glad I have used the team and don’t have to consider them for the week. The Steelers are coming off two blowout wins, but those were against the Browns and Colts, so they will face a big step up in competition here. The Steelers are probably the better overall team, but it scares me going against the Giants, a team that can beat any team on any given Sunday. If you haven’t picked the Steelers yet then they might be a decent option as this is a tough week for picks. The Steelers have had extra time off after their Thursday game, and that definitely plays in their favor in this matchup.

Seattle -6.5 vs. Carolina: The Seahawks are a team I will be considering for my Week 13 NFL Survivor Pool pick. Actually it’s between them and the Saints for my pick this week. Seattle played another stinker on Sunday, a 5-14 laugher in Tampa Bay. That they scored only five points is terrifying for anyone that is considering them for Week 13 picks. However, they are 5-0 at home on the season, and the Panthers are 1-4 on the road. Carolina has to be deflated after their season likely came to an end in their hard-fought loss in Oakland. I don’t like this pick as much as the Saints pick at this point, but I am going to do further research on these matchups in order to come up with my weekly pick.