NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 5: Opening Line Report and Expert Advice

Week 4 was somewhat of a wacky one for NFL Survivor Pool players, and in my pool a good amount of people were bounced by a couple of big upsets. The Rams won again, this time in Arizona, and that was probably the biggest upset of the week. That wasn’t my top pick; Cincinnati was – and they took care of business pretty easily against Miami on Thursday night – but in order to diversify I did take Arizona on one of my cards, leaving me with only one of four after four weeks. New England losing to Buffalo also knocked some people out. Oakland over Baltimore was also a notable upset.

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Week 5 will be a pretty easy one assuming you haven’t picked the Patriots yet. They are the biggest favorite on the board for opening lines in the NFL this week, favored by 10.5 points. If you have already used the Pats then things will get trickier. But if you still have New England at your disposal then the week should be pretty much worry-free.

Here I will go down the list of the biggest favorites on the Week 5 betting board in an exercise I do each week in order to get a pool of teams together that I will further evaluate for my weekly picks. I will post the games here in chronological order. The Chiefs, Saints, Seahawks and Jaguars are on the bye. Check back Thursday for official NFL Survivor Pool picks for Week 5.

NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 5 Opening Line Report and Expert Advice

Arizona -3 at San Francisco (Thursday): The Cardinals have looked bad to start the season at 1-3 and they have knocked quite a few players out of Survivor Pools this season as they had some favorable matchups and were supposed to be a top team in the NFC. Now QB Carson Palmer is hurt and Drew Stanton is the likely starter. No way to trust Arizona at this point in the season, especially against a division opponent on the road.

Minnesota -6 vs. Houston: Minnesota looks like a solid NFL Survivor Pool pick for Week 5. One knock against them is that they are coming in on a short week after playing in Monday Night Football last night. The Vikings are 4-0 and the Texans are 3-1, but Houston has faced a way easier schedule. Both clubs have great defenses, but Minnesota is much better in that area and they are at home. The Texans have never won in three lifetime meetings in this series. I would feel comfortable picking Minnesota this week.

Miami -3.5 vs. Tennessee: I have thankfully already used Miami and got lucky when they beat Cleveland in overtime in Week 3. I’m glad I don’t have to worry about them anymore. This team has not played anywhere near as well as I expected them to this season, and the Cleveland game exposed some real issues with this squad. Tennessee is going to win at least a few games this year and they have been very competitive thus far. Would not be surprised if they pulled the upset here.

New England -10.5 at Cleveland: I don’t think the Browns are as bad as everyone else does. They have been pretty competitive the last three weeks, and just on coaching alone I think they will win a couple games this season. So this isn’t an automatic fade team for me every week. However, Tom Brady returns here for the Pats, and as we saw last season he plays real well when he has a chip on his shoulder. After last week’s embarrassing loss vs. Buffalo this team will want to get back on the right track and with Brady under center they are the best team in the league. I normally don’t mess around with road teams this early in the season for NFL Survivor Pool picks, but even on the road New England is as strong of a pick as there will be all season in this spot.

Pittsburgh -7 vs. New York Jets: The Jets have looked awful the last couple weeks, but this is one of the oldest and most experienced teams in the league, and I really don’t think they are as bad as they have played. This team has committed a lot of turnovers recently, and that has made the scores of their games look more lopsided than they really were. Pittsburgh dominated a solid Kansas City team Sunday night and now their ugly loss to the Eagles is way in the rearview mirror. This team is one of the best in the NFL, and they should get the win here. I just hate to play against the Jets as this team normally finds a way to win when everyone counts them out. Luckily, I haven’t used New England yet this season so I don’t have to worry about picking from this matchup.

Baltimore -4 vs. Washington: I like the Ravens a lot in this spot and think they have a great chance for a comfortable win here. This team could easily be 4-0 as they suffered a last-minute loss Sunday against a solid Raiders team. But that will make them more focused on getting the win here. The Redskins are good at a lot of things but far from a complete team. They are the worst team in their division, in my eyes, and I just don’t see this team rolling out of Baltimore with a win. I will certainly have money on the Ravens in this spot as I think the point spread should be larger here.

Indianapolis -4.5 vs. Chicago: Some Survivor Pool players might try and get tricky here and take the Colts because they are fading the Bears. That’s a bad move, in my opinion. The Colts look like trash this season. They have a QB and a couple nice players but they have more holes on the roster than swiss cheese. How can you trust a team like this with your Survivor Pool life? Chicago is pretty bad but not Browns bad. They will win a few games this season, and I absolutely think this one is winnable for them. Things may get worse in Indy before they get better.

Denver -6 vs. Atlanta: I will have to say I have been wrong about the Broncos – not only this season but also last. I didn’t think they were good enough to get anywhere near the Super Bowl last season much less win it. And I thought they would struggle to start this season with a rookie QB leading the team. But the defense is good enough to carry this team, and their offense is probably better without Peyton Manning anyhow. Atlanta looks very good this season. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones put up some video game numbers last week and Denver will have to be at its best defensively to contain these Falcons. There are other games on the Survivor Pool card for Week 5 that I like a lot better than this one.

Oakland -4 vs. San Diego: I try and stay away from divisional rivalries when making my weekly NFL Survivor Pool picks. Even bad teams can give their best effort against a familiar/hated opponent. But I couldn’t really argue with you if you wanted to take Oakland here. They are playing with a ton of confidence after another come-from-behind win at Baltimore on Sunday. San Diego is in the opposite mindset as they blew a huge late lead for the second time this season on Sunday at home against the Saints. Team morale has to be really low now, and their coach had a meltdown after the game and kind of pointed the finger at the players when losses like that fall on the shoulders of the coach more than anyone else. The Raiders are a solid play for Week 5.

Green Bay -7 vs. New York Giants: Green Bay looks like a nice option for Week 5 NFL Survivor Pool picks. They are coming off the bye and should be well rested here while the Giants are in on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. New York has lost two straight after a 2-0 start, and they didn’t look very good at all on Monday night. The Packers looked pretty solid last time out in a win against Detroit, and they should be in good shape here after the bye. However, the Giants are just one of those teams that can look like crap one week and a Super Bowl contender the next.

Carolina (line off the board) vs. Tampa Bay (Monday Night Football): This line is off the board at most sportsbooks as Panthers QB Cam Newton is on concussion protocol. If Newton seems healthy and ready to play then this would probably be my second choice of the week for Week 5 NFL Survivor Pool picks. The Panthers are 1-3 after losing only one game during the regular season last year. Unlike the Cardinals, however, this team has played a really tough schedule, and I’m not as worried about this club in the long run like I am Arizona. I think they will get their act together. If Newton is healthy then this team should be primed for a strong bounce-back effort over an overmatched Tampa Bay team that has played worse each week this season.