NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4: Opening Line Report

Week 3 was a pretty easy one for NFL Survivor Pool players as most of the big favorites won, but it was a tough one for me as I took a riskier pick in Tampa Bay at home vs. the Los Angeles Rams, and they were upset in that game, knocking me out of half my entries. Two years ago I was knocked out on two of my three cards because of the Titans Week 1 upset over the Chiefs, and I eventually still finished in the money, so I am still confident I can make it deep in the season as my main pool has been whittled down by 45 percent since Week 1. At the last minute I decided to use Tampa Bay on two cards instead of one, and of course now I am regretting that decision big time.

The most popular Week 3 Survivor Pool pick, by far, was the Dolphins at home over the Browns, and they needed OT and some botched field goals by Cleveland to escape with an improbable win. I have said before that luck plays a major part for anyone that wins an NFL Survivor Pool, and I have to admit I was lucky last week not to be knocked out altogether. There were a couple other mild upsets in Week 3 that probably knocked a few players out of your pool, but nothing earth-shattering. Most of the big favorites took care of business.

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Week 4 looks incredibly tough for NFL Survivor Pool players. The biggest favorites on the board: Cincinnati (1-2), Washington (1-2), Houston (2-1 but coming off the most embarrassing loss of the season), Arizona (1-2 and coming off a bad loss) and Pittsburgh (2-1 but coming off an embarrassing loss). So judging by the betting odds you are going to have to take a leap of faith to back any of these teams in Week 4.

Here I will make some NFL Survivor Pool picks for Week 4 and go down the opening lines of the bigger favorites with analysis. Games are listed in chronological order.

NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4: Opening Lines

Cincinnati -7 vs. Miami (Thursday): There are some things I like about this possible pick and some I definitely don’t. The Bengals are probably better than their record as they have played three straight playoff-caliber clubs, with two of those games coming on the road. They should play much better here, and the home team normally has the advantage in these Thursday night contests. However, Miami has been very unpredictable this season and I have had to sweat out their games already twice this season (Week 1 in Seattle in a game they should have won and last week vs. Cleveland in a game they deserved to lose). I think the Bengals win this one, and this is a strong consideration for me.

Washington -8 vs. Cleveland: The Browns are the biggest fade team this season, and some people are going to pick against them every week. I will be picking against them quite a bit but will be picking my spots. Yes, the Redskins looked great in their upset win over the Giants last week. They always seem to play good in division games, however. But this is still a flawed team. Cleveland has actually played pretty well the last two weeks in close losses to the Dolphins and Ravens, two teams some experts pegged as potential playoff teams before the season started. Now their loss to the 3-0 Eagles doesn’t seem that bad, either. This team has nothing to lose, and Terrelle Pryor is an exciting player that can make some things happen. I will pass on this game as I just don’t trust Washington.

New England -4 vs. Buffalo: This game is off the board at most sportsbooks due to the questionable QB situation for the Pats. Buffalo looked really good last week, and maybe this team is starting to gain some confidence. They certainly have some talent. I would rather trust New England once Brady comes back, even though they haven’t skipped a beat without him.

Houston -6.5 vs. Tennessee: This is another solid pick. Houston looked horrible last Thursday, but they got caught up in the buzzsaw that is the New England juggernaut. But they have had a long week here to prepare and get back on track, and they are a much better team than the Titans. Tennessee, however, has been pretty scrappy this season and they have been competitive in every game. But Houston has won four straight in this series and seven of the last eight, and the extra rest gives them a real advantage here.

Baltimore -3.5 vs. Oakland: Really think that this one is a coin flip, and I already bet on the Raiders in this contest. I don’t think the Ravens are as good as their record, and they have benefitted from an easy schedule. Pass.

San Diego -4 vs. New Orleans: There won’t be a lot of defense played in this one. Anything can happen here if one of these teams gets hot on offense, and this one looks like a crapshoot also. I don’t trust San Diego at all as a favorite, and the Saints are a team that can pull an upset over any middling team any week.

Arizona -8 vs. Los Angeles: This is a tough one, but in a very tough Week 4 this is probably in my Top 3 along with the Bengals and Texans. Yes, the Cardinals are coming off a humiliating blowout loss in Buffalo, but this team is back home where they are very tough to beat. The Rams are coming off two straight upset wins, but this team still has a lot of problems on offense. This is a divisional game, and that scares me, especially considering the Rams pulled the upset last year in Arizona. But I think this will be a nice bounce-back effort from the home team.

Pittsburgh -6 vs. Kansas City: The Chiefs have the momentum coming into this game as they throttled the Jets on Sunday in a game where all the experts picked New York. Pittsburgh got stomped in Philly to the now-3-0 Eagles. The Steelers are the better team here, especially offensively, but there are better options out there for Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool picks as the Chiefs are a strong playoff contender and they beat Pittsburgh pretty handily last season, although that game was at Arrowhead Stadium.

Minnesota -4 vs. New York Giants (Monday Night Football): The Vikings put on the best performance in Week 3 in a blowout win at Carolina. This defense is legit. The Giants are a team that is inconsistent, but they have enough firepower to beat any team on any given Sunday (or Monday, in this case). And you just get the feeling that some of the hotshots on the Giants will give their best performance in front of a national audience on MNF.

Come back all throughout the week for NFL Survivor Pool picks and advice as well as expert betting picks for college and pro against the spread.