NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 2: Opening Line Report

Week 1 was a Crazy one for NFL Survivor Pools, and, yes, I meant to capitalize “crazy”. My top pick was the Chiefs at home vs. the San Diego Chargers, and they needed the biggest comeback in team history to tie the game and they eventually won it on overtime. I also had Seattle, and they needed some late heroics of their own to squeak out a win at home against the Dolphins. Even my other pick of Houston vs. Chicago looked pretty shaky for most of the game until the Texans pulled away in the second half.

When the dust settled, all four of my picks helped me advance. I was actually kind of hoping that Seattle would lose to the Dolphins even though I had them on one of my four Survivor Pool picks cards. They were the overwhelming most popular pick for Week 1, and I would be more than happy to give up one of my cards to knock so many competitors out of the pool. One good thing about the close calls was that the two times I have won my pool I have had at least one lucky week like this. So hopefully I got that lucky week out of the way and it will be smooth sailing for at least seven or eight weeks!

Since KC and Seattle avoided the upset, it was a pretty straightforward week for Survivor Pools, although there were a couple upsets that knocked some people out (Denver over Carolina, Detroit over Indianapolis and New England over Arizona chief among them). In all there were seven upsets in Week 1, although many were from games that most sensible players would not use.

One interesting outcome was the Patriots win at Arizona. By kickoff that line had moved to double-digits (10 at most sportsbooks; I happily made a big bet on New England plus the points at that number). So the Cardinals were the first double-digit favorite to get upset this season. Two years ago 10-point-or-higher favorites won at a 92 percent success rate. Last year that number dropped to 76 percent. Now we are sitting at 50 percent through one week of the NFL season. Maybe these big favorites aren’t as good as we originally thought for NFL Survivor Pools? Maybe we should be wary of the Carolina Panthers laying a big number this week at home against San Francisco?

Here I will look at some Week 2 favorites to get an early idea of who we might be using for our NFL Survivor Pool picks for Week 2. Sign up for our newsletter on the left side of this blog to get our official picks from three former pool winners via e-mail on Thursdays, or the same information will be posted on Saturdays on the homepage of our blog.

NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 2: Look at Opening Lines

I will start off with the biggest favorites here and go down the list.

Carolina (-13) vs. San Francisco

I’ll just say it right now, this is probably one of the strongest picks for the entire season for NFL Survivor Pools. There is a very good chance I will use Carolina on all four of my cards, although I may diversify on at least one card. Carolina has extra rest here after playing on the Thursday night season opener. They lost that game to the Broncos, so they have less of a chance for a letdown against the inferior Niners. A loss here would be catastrophic. San Francisco has a short week after playing on Monday Night Football in Week 1. They looked pretty good in a shutout of the Los Angeles Rams, but I think that was more a case of the Rams just playing a really bad game. This would be a monumental upset if the Niners were to win this game. This will be the most popular pick on the Week 2 Survivor Pool board by a mile, but at this point of the season I am just worried about advancing in my pool. No need to try and get cute when there is a pick as strong as this on the board.

Baltimore (-7) at Cleveland

The Browns looked even worse than advertised in their Week 1 loss to the Eagles. This team stinks, and Baltimore will also be a trendy Week 2 Survivor Pool picks since fading the Browns will be a popular strategy this season. But I will stay away from this one. Division game. Road game. Cleveland actually beat Baltimore last season, and both games were close. I will pass on this one even though this is probably a pretty solid pick.

New England (-6.5) vs. Miami

I don’t like this game, either. The Patriots looked like they didn’t need Tom Brady in their Week 1 upset at Arizona. Now all their games are at home until Brady returns. I just have the feeling they will lose at least once, if not twice, before Brady gets back. Miami pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season last year, beating New England in Week 17 as a double-digit underdog. They also looked decent in their Week 1 loss at Seattle.

Arizona (-6.5) vs. Tampa Bay

I actually like this game a lot as well. The Cardinals lost to a very good team on Sunday night. They will be primed to bounce back here. This is an out-of-conference opponent and a mismatch. The Bucs looked very good in Week 1 in a road win at Atlanta, 31-24. They face a much tougher defense here, however, and should struggle on the offensive end. I just don’t see Arizona dropping to 0-2.

 Detroit (-6) vs. Tennessee

Tennessee played decently in a Week 1 loss to Minnesota, and I think this team may surprise some people this season. Detroit looked good in a Week 1 upset of Indianapolis. But I think that was more of a sign that Indy is a lousy team than that Detroit is really good. The Lions will be the type of team you will have to use later in the season when better options are unavailable. But it’s too early to use a team like this that has been so inconsistent in the past.

Denver -6 vs. Indianapolis

I bet on Denver here minus the points and think they will win. That was more a bet against Indy, who turned in one of the worst Week 1 performances, than a vote of confidence for Denver. The Broncos will probably be in a lot of close games this season as they will be great on defense and will struggle on offense. They should put up enough points to win and cover here, but I like this as a straight spread bet rather than a Survivor Pool pick. Denver does get extra rest here, so they do have that going for them.

New York Giants (-4.5) vs. New Orleans

This game has the highest betting total on the board at 53 points (the bookies set a bettable number for the combined score for both teams in the game, and bettors can take “over” or “under”). This one is probably going to be a shootout. Neither team looked great in Week 1, and I think there will be a lot of scoring in this game but that is about the only thing I can predict about it. Pass.

Oakland -4.5 vs. Atlanta

I like a lot of what I saw from the Raiders last week, and Jack Del Rio has balls of steel for going for the two-point conversion to win the game. Atlanta looked bad in a home loss to the Bucs. I just get the feeling both of these teams are inconsistent clubs this year that will look great one week and lousy the next. I will stay away from this one, but for those that want to live dangerously I couldn’t really argue with you if you wanted to take Oakland here.

Seattle (Line off the Board) at Los Angeles Rams

Many Survivor Pool contestants used the Seahawks in Week 1 and no longer have them as an option. This line is off the board because QB Russell Wilson is banged up for the Hawks, even though he is currently listed as probable to play. But the Rams looked like the worst team in the NFL by far in Week 1, and this may be one of the best teams to fade this season. There are probably better chances to take the Seahawks down the line, but I’m pretty sure this will be an easy win for the visitors.

I don’t like any of the smaller three-point type favorites and there are some pretty good options on the board for this week, so I won’t even cover those this week. Remember, our official picks will be posted on Saturday here at SurvivorPoolPicks.com, but you can get them a few days early by signing up for our e-mail list on the left side of this blog.