2016 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 1: Pros and Cons for Top Choices

There is one obvious pick on the board for Week 1 NFL Survivor Pools and then a bunch of other possible plays that provide varying degrees of confidence. Here I will go down my list in order of that confidence – from most confident to least – of the teams I am considering for my NFL Survivor Pool picks for Week 1.

Keep a look out on the homepage on Thursday here at SurvivorPoolPicks.com as we will provide our official picks on Thursday each week of the NFL season. Myself and two other former winners will give our official cards, four entries each, throughout the season through Week 17 or until we are all busted.

Remember, we always try to take home teams whenever possible and try to stay away from rivalry games. We use the point spread as a guideline for our weekly picks but don’t treat this as the Holy Grail. However, it’s a proven fact that NFL point spread favorites of seven or more points have the best chance to avoid the upset on a weekly basis.

Let’s get to it with some 2016 NFL Survivor Pool picks for Week 1 of the new season.

Seattle (-10.5) vs. Miami

Pros:

–10+-point favorite; these big favorites avoided the upset at a 92 percent success rate two years ago but won only 78 percent of their games last year.

–One of the NFL’s Super Bowl favorites and a team with a very strong home-field advantage.

–Seattle got off to a slow start last season (2-4 in first six) and will want to avoid a similar situation this season.

–Miami has to travel all the way across the country.

Cons:

–That 2-4 start last season is concerning; could we see another slow start? But only one of those losses came at home, a close one to Carolina on Oct. 18.

–Miami has a chance to be a decent 8-8-type team is everything falls into place; new coach will want a strong game in debut.

–Seattle was one of those 10+-point favorites to lose last season in a Week 16 loss to the Rams; the Dolphins pulled off a similar upset the last time we saw them take the field, winning as a huge underdog Week 17 against New England.

Kansas City -7 vs. San Diego

Pros:

–Kansas City has won four straight against the Chargers. The Chiefs were 5-1 in the AFC West last season and should have been 6-0, while the Chargers were winless in league play and might be an even worse team this season.

–The Chiefs are a legitimate Super Bowl contender and could have earned home-field advantage throughout the playoffs last season if not for late-game wins by Denver and Chicago in the regular season.

–Kansas City has a great home-field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium, and the crowd should be even more nuts than usual with this being the season opener.

Cons:

–This is a rivalry game in the division so sometimes even a bad team like the Chargers could play beyond what you would expect from them.

–Kansas City was another team to start slow last year at 1-5 before winning their last 10 regular-season games.

–Philip Rivers is one of the better quarterbacks in the league, and if he plays his best game he can win against any opponent.

Houston (-6) vs. Chicago

Pros:

–Houston looks stacked on offense and should once again have an excellent defense. The Texans have a solid starting quarterback after all the uncertainty they had at the position last season.

–This is an out-of-conference game, so no rivalry effect.

–Chicago has a chance to be really bad this season and could be worse than last year’s 6-10 club. They also lost their first three games last season, so another slow start is definitely possible.

Cons:

–It’s unknown at this time if J.J. Watt, arguably the best defensive player in the league, will play for Houston. If he misses the game then that hurts the D both physically and mentally.

–Houston lost their season opener last year and got off to a slow overall start at 1-4.

–The Bears are well coached, and John Fox will have his team ready to compete in this one even though they are outmatched from a talent standpoint.

Indianapolis (-4) vs. Detroit

Pros:

–Sharp money seems to be on the Colts this week minus the points as the line is rising; it’s always a great idea to be on the same side as professional sports bettors.

–Indy has one of the best young quarterbacks in the league; Andrew Luck has the poise and ability to carry the team on his back, and he makes his teammates better much like Peyton Manning did during this time with the Colts.

–The Lions seem like they may take a step back this season from a team that just wasn’t very good last year.

–Public confidence is low for the Colts right now, so not many Survivor Pool players will pick them; if you pick them and they win and there are some other upsets, you may be in great shape in your pool.

Cons:

–The Colts started slow last season, losing their first two games. You always have to be wary of teams that tend to start slow.

–Not a ton of talent around Luck; the running game looks like it could be pretty bad with the aging Frank Gore as the penciled starter.

–Luck has been injury prone and could be hurt on any play.

–Does this team have enough talent around Luck to win on a regular basis?

Philadelphia (-4) vs. Cleveland

Pros:

–Cleveland is probably the best fade team in the NFL this season; they won three games last year and could be lucky to do better than that this season.

–The Eagles have better talent at many positions.

–This is an out-of-conference game, so no rivalry impact. The Eagles will want to get off to a strong start in front of the home fans in probably the most winnable game of the season.

Cons:

–Philly is starting rookie quarterback Carson Wentz. Do you really want your entire Survivor Pool season resting on the shoulders of a rookie QB?

–Trading starter Sam Bradford for future draft picks send a negative message to the team. If team management is building for the future then what is the incentive for players to perform their best on the field today?

–Just because everyone says the Browns will be the worst team in the league this year doesn’t mean it will automatically come true.

–Sharp bettors seem somewhat interested in the Browns here as this line has dropped in the last week; some of that line movement can be attributed to the Eagles QB situation.