NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 1: Early Look at the Odds

If the opening NFL odds for Week 1 are any indication, this is going to be a very tough week for NFL Survivor Pool players, just like last season was in Week 1 (although there is one big favorite this season unlike last). This is a good thing, however, for those of us that do your homework and make the best picks. Weeks 1 through 4 are when many of the suckers are weeded out of most pools, so the tougher the matchups are to start off the season, the better for us unless we slip up with our picks.

The biggest favorite on the betting board at this time is Seattle -11.5 vs. Miami. Favorites of 10+ points are the closest things to a “sure thing” for NFL Survivor Pools, and we have one of these as an option this week. However, there are a few other decent-sized favorites on the early betting board, and it looks like there are some very solid possibilities out there for our picks.

Here I will go through each game with a listed favorite of three or more points and give my initial observations about the game, and the week of the games I will come back with a more detailed article after I have had the chance to do more research.

Also, during the season, myself and two other former Survivor Pool winners will give our official picks on Thursdays each week. Be sure to come back during the regular season for plenty of NFL Survivor Pool analysis.

I will go down the list of games for Week 1 in chronological order:

Carolina Panthers -3 at Denver Broncos

I normally don’t pick Thursday games during the season, because with short rest too many crazy things can happen for each team and it makes the games more unpredictable. That doesn’t play into my philosophy for this game as this will be the first game of the season for each team.  The Broncos are the defending Super Bowl champs, but Peyton Manning has retired and they have big questions at QB. They also have a very good defense that should carry them to a solid record this season no matter who is behind center. And the Panthers are on the road here, and this is way too early to be picking a road team, no less on Opening Night and in a tough stadium for opposing teams to get a W. Will be passing on this one.

Minnesota Vikings -3.5 at Tennessee Titans

Another road team and another likely pass for me, although the Vikings should take care of business here. Tennessee is early in a rebuilding phase, but they have their QB in place in Marcus Mariota and they will probably be a scrappy team that pulls an upset or two during the course of the season. This team is improving but not quite there yet. I would not yell at someone for taking the Vikings here, but this is too early in the season for me to think about taking road clubs. (Editor’s note: since Teddy Bridgewater is out now that drops Minnesota down further as a possible pick).

Philadelphia Eagles -6 vs. Cleveland Browns

Cleveland has a good chance to be the worst team in the NFL this season and they will likely only win one or two road games this season, if any. This will be a very popular pick for Week 1 NFL Survivor Pools because Cleveland will be a favorite fade team for many and Philly is also one of the biggest betting favorites on the Week 1 board. But how much can you trust an Eagles team that went 7-9 last season and is breaking in a rookie coach? Also, maybe a change in scenery will revive Robert Griffin III’s NFL career and the Browns won’t be as bad as expected? The Eagles seem like a decent possibility, although I am sort of iffy about this one until I do further research.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 vs. San Diego Chargers

On first glance at the NFL Week 1 schedule, this game stands out for a possible Survivor Pool pick. The Chiefs look to be the class of the AFC West this season while the Chargers should be on the other end of the standings. Kansas City swept San Diego last season, including a road blowout, and the Chiefs were very good in the division last year at 5-1. They have also had some nice recent success in this series. By all indications this team is better than last year’s club that got off to that slow start before winning 10 straight in the regular season and also their first playoff win in decades. A definite possibility, although this will be another very popular pick for Week 1 Survivor Pools.

Baltimore Ravens -3 vs. Buffalo Bills

All indications are that the Bills are going to stink this year and that the Ravens might be a potential bounce-back club. Baltimore was as affected by injuries as much as any team in the NFL last season, but this is a tough team that should be right in a lot of games this season. Buffalo has dealt with the injury bug in the preseason, and Coach Rex Ryan is squarely on the hot seat to start the year. The Bills do have some talent, however, and I’m not sure if I want to risk my Survivor Pool in Week 1 on a Ravens team that went 5-11 last season.

Houston Texans -4.5 vs. Chicago Bears

Both of these teams are unknowns to me coming into the season. Houston could win 10 games or they could lose nine. Chicago could be decent if everything comes together right, but they stunk last year and have questions all over the field. I think Houston is a very shaky pick here for Week 1, and I want to see how these teams play before I risk my pool on either of these clubs.

Green Bay Packers -4.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Many NFL handicappers I respect think this is the year Jacksonville will emerge from its rebuilding phase and finally put some positive results on the field. I tend to agree. Blake Bortles has been improving every year at QB and he finally has a lot of talent around him on both sides of the ball. However, Green Bay is clearly the better team here and they are probably really focused on getting off to a strong start this season as they have fallen short the last few seasons. I don’t mess with road teams this early in the season, but I think Green Bay is a pretty safe pick for those that want to. They are more of a trusted commodity than the same 4.5-point favorite listed above.

Seattle Seahawks -11.5 vs. Miami Dolphins

This is the largest favorite on the board for Week 1. The Seahawks had a down year by their recent standards and finished the regular season 10-6 and won a wild-card game at Minnesota before being dispatched by the Panthers in the divisional round. There’s no reason they won’t be a stronger team this year. However, their slow start last season worries me (0-2 to start, 2-4 in their first six). But they are at home here in one of, if not THE, toughest stadium for opposing teams to play in and facing a team that was lousy last year and that has a rookie coach. Very solid pick, although many of your competitors will be on this one as well.

Indianapolis Colts -4 vs. Detroit Lions

The Colts are a smaller favorite than the Packers and Texans, but I think they would be a stronger pick than both of those teams. The Lions should be terrible this season. Confidence in the Colts is low right now, but Andrew Luck is back behind center and he is still one of the emerging, dynamic QBs in the NFL right now even though he was hampered by injuries last year. And they are at home and are the better team, and this is probably my No. 2 choice for Week 1 preceding further research.

Arizona Cardinals -6 vs. New England

Home team. Big favorite. There are a lot of things to like about the Cardinals in Week 1. Tom Brady, of course, will not play for the Pats here, and Jimmy Garoppolo will instead be the starter. But I just think that the Patriots will be ultra motivated in this game and will want to put on a good showing to stick it to Roger Goodell and in front of a national TV audience on Sunday night. Even with Brady missing four games the Patriots are still the odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl at offshore sportsbooks and in Las Vegas. There is a lot of talent here, and this team can still be dangerous even without its star QB. The Cards should win this one, but this pick makes me a bit nervous.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Washington Redskins

The Steelers are a road team here, so that is one strike against them. The Redskins are a reigning division champion, although the NFC West was the worst division in football last season. But Washington should be a pretty good team this season, and they can certainly win this game at home on “Monday Night Football”. The Steelers are the better team. They should get the win here. I will probably pass on this one by virtue of the Steelers playing this one on the road. If they were the home team in this matchup they would be a very strong play. That is the power of home-field advantage in the NFL!

Here are some past articles that might help you win your NFL Survivor Pool:

How to Win an NFL Survivor Pool

Using the NFL Odds for Winning Survivor Pool Picks

Interview with Former Survivor Pool Winner

Check us out every week during the NFL season as we will have videos, articles and more to help you advance in your NFL Survivor Pool. We will also post our official picks (from three former winners) every Thursday on our homepage.