Free NFL Betting Picks Week 4 from Expert Pro Football Handicapper

Got off track the last two weeks, but I am still confident moving forward. Every NFL season has its ups and downs over the course of 17 weeks plus the playoffs and Super Bowl, and I feel a big week coming up here soon. Hopefully it happens this week. The Las Vegas sportsbooks have taken a beating with a lot of popular favorites covering this season. I like to play against the public, so it makes sense that I have gotten off to a slow start. But I like this week’s card a lot and plan to get some positive units this week.

I will offer these free picks every week during the NFL season on SurvivorPoolPicks.com. The selections will be ranked between 1 and 3 units, with each unit representing a hypothetical $100 bet (we will factor in the juice, or vigorish, to all results). Not all players bet $100 per unit, so feel free to use a dollar amount for each unit that you are comfortable with. I have been handicapping the NFL for years and consider this my strongest sport, so feel free to follow along and maybe we can both make some money this season.

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Free NFL Betting Picks Week 4

Pick No. 1

1-Unit Straight Bet

Baltimore -2.5 over Pittsburgh (Thursday Night Football; line from BetOnline.ag)

Real interesting line here for the Thursday nighter. Of course, Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh QB, was injured last time out against the Rams and will likely be out for a month or two. Mike Vick takes over in his place. I didn’t like Vick back in his heyday and sure don’t like him any better now. This offense is really going to struggle with him leading the charge. The Ravens are 0-3 to start off the year. They have had an extremely tough schedule thus far. I think this team will play desperate here and expect them to win this game. We are getting a great line here. Yes, they adjusted this line because of Roethlisberger. But I think it wasn’t adjusted enough. The Ravens are being undervalued here, and I don’t think they are as bad as they have looked so far. The 2.5 is key here. I would only bet this one off the key number of 3. Some books have it at 3. I would say search out the 2.5 or don’t bet this one. That extra half point is huge since 3 is the most common margin of victory in NFL games.

Pick No. 2

1-Unit Straight Bet

Miami +2 over New York Jets (London Game)

Going to back another 0-3 team here. This team hasn’t played as tough of a schedule as Baltimore, who we mentioned in our last writeup, and they have looked much worse than the Ravens en route to this winless record. However, I think this line is an overreaction. If the bookmakers would have set a line on this one in preseason the Dolphins would have been favored by 3 or more points. Joe Philbin of Miami is coaching for his job here. I think his players respond. The Jets looked lousy last week in a loss to Philly. This team has a good defense, but their offense will probably struggle to do anything here. This is probably a close, low-scoring game, which always favors the underdog. These are both 7-9 or 8-8 type teams. Nothing that has happened so far has changed my mind on that. The law of averages probably equals out and Miami gets the win here. I think this one has nice line value as well. You can bet this game at Bovada and get some great bonuses if you are a first-time client. Click here to sign up today.

Pick No. 3

1-Unit Straight Bet

Buffalo -5.5 over New York Giants

I am definitely on the Bills bandwagon this season. I think this is a Top 10 team in the NFL, and if they had a really good quarterback they might be a Top 5 team. Maybe QB Tyrod Taylor will work out. He seems like enough of a game manager for this team to enjoy success. If the Bills are as good as I think they are then they should win this game with authority. The Giants aren’t a good team. They have a pretty solid offense, but the Bills have shown they can score, too, and they have a much better defense. I really wanted to take the Bills for my Week 4 Survivor Pool pick. I think I’m going to back off that notion, though. There are a couple red flags for me in this game that dropped this down to a 1-Unit play for me. First, there is some reverse line movement here with the majority of bets on the Bills but the line moving the opposite way. Plus, the Bills have a couple key injuries at the skill positions. I do think Buffalo will get the win here, however. You can bet this game at Bovada and take advantage of their awesome first-time signup deals. Sign up here.

Pick No. 4

1-Unit Straight Bet

Kansas City +4 over Cincinnati

The Chiefs have been a big reason for my slow start as I had a big bet on them Week 2 against Denver in that game they choked away. I thought they would play a strong game in their Monday Night Football contest in Green Bay as well. They looked awful last week. But I think there was a hangover from the Denver game and too much time off between those games. But Kansas City is a good team. They will be desperate here, and I think the Monday game was a combination of a lousy game by them and a really strong performance by Green Bay. It made the talent deficit look larger than it really is. But this team does not want to drop to 1-3 as the playoffs start to become a pipe dream at that point. They should give a good effort here. Will they win? I don’t know. But this seems like a field goal game either way to me, so I am happy to get the four points here. First time betting online? Try Bovada as they have a very easy-to-use interface and they make deposits a snap. Click here.

Pick No. 5

2-Unit Straight Bet

San Francisco +9 over Green Bay

There are a few reasons I like the underdog here. Green Bay looked unbeatable on Monday Night Football in their win over the Chiefs. That game is fresh in everyone’s mind. And I think points have been added to this line as a result. But now Green Bay has to travel to San Francisco on a short week to play a Niners team that has looked awful on the road but looked very strong in their lone home game, a big upset win over the now 2-1 Vikings on Monday Night Football. San Francisco is a proud team. And the Niners have played the Packers very hard in recent years. This isn’t as good of a San Francisco team, but I do think this will be a letdown spot for the road team and that this is at least a couple too many points here. The Niners come to play on Sunday! Bet this hot 2-Unit underdog play at Bovada and get some awesome welcome bonuses for first-time players. They have poker, too! Click here.

Pick No. 6

2-Unit Straight Bet
Detroit +10.5 over Seattle (Sportbet.com)

So this is the third 0-3 team I am betting on this week! I don’t think like a normal NFL gambler. When a team loses many games and fails to cover many spreads then the value in that team rises, in my eyes. Detroit has a lot of talent. They will get it together at some point and win some games. This is not a two- or three-win type team. I think they put themselves in a hole they are unlikely to crawl out from with this slow start. But I think they will come to play here after getting embarrassed on national TV last week. This Seattle team is not as good as the team we have seen the last couple years. And they have a target on their backs. They might win this one, but I expect the Lions to play like their season is on the line. And it really is as 0-4 means start thinking about the offseason already!

2015-16 Season Record

6-11, -$860.00

Back next week with more free NFL betting picks!