NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 4: Opening Lines Report

After the craziness of Week 2 and what we called Black Sunday, Week 3 was pretty straightforward. The three most popular picks; Seattle, New England and Carolina; all won easily, and the fourth most popular pick, Houston, took care of business as well. This wasn’t a week to take risks or gamble, and anyone who played it straight advanced.

Now here we are at Week 4. There are some pretty big favorites on the betting board this week. But I’m not really in love with any of them. I think there will be a couple big upsets this week and think Week 4 is going to be pretty tough to pick a winner. I’ll be putting some extra research in this week for sure in order to come up with the best NFL Survivor Pool picks for Week 4.

Let’s go over the largest spreads on the board with some commentary and analysis for Week 4 Survivor Pool picks.

Indianapolis -9 vs. Jacksonville: Indy already knocked me out of a couple cards in my Survivor Pool with their Week 2 loss to the Jets. I just don’t have a lot of faith in this team right now. They are extremely vulnerable in the secondary, and Andrew Luck has been playing more like a scared rookie than a seasoned vet. They just barely squeaked out a win last week in Tennessee. Not very inspiring. Jacksonville was embarrassed in New England last week. I don’t think that they are as bad as they looked on Sunday, however. The Patriots are really dialed in right now, and that game just got out of hand quickly. I think the Jags hang around here as I think this is an inflated line. But the Colts should win this one. This game is a possibility for my pick this week because I don’t love any of the other big favorites, and maybe that win last week gives the Colts come confidence heading into this home game.

Atlanta -6.5 vs. Houston: The Falcons have looked great. They are definitely one of the surprise teams of the NFL this season at 3-0. However, I’m not sold yet. They beat up a Philly team that is off to a slow start. Their road win against the Giants doesn’t earn my respect. And they needed a rally to beat a Cowboys team whose injury report is as long as a shopping list. Atlanta is at home here. I think these teams are about even except Atlanta has the better quarterback. This should be a close game. Atlanta for me is a team to use down the line when some of the better NFL teams have already been used. Good team, but I won’t be using them for my Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool pick.

Buffalo -5.5 vs. New York Giants: I really like this Buffalo team this season. They were pretty good last season, and now they have a better coach leading the way. Really I like the Bills as a possible Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool pick better than the Falcons, who are giving a full point more in their game. I think that this line is a bit short, and I will probably be betting on the Bills this week. This line should be closer to 7, and I expect the Bills to take care of business here against an out-of-conference opponent and at home. I have circled Buffalo this week and put them in the pool of teams I am considering for my Week 4 pick.

Cincinnati -3.5 vs. Kansas City: Although this is not a big line, I did want to mention this game. I have been high on Kansas City this year to the detriment of my betting bankroll. They have been on national TV a lot, so the general public has been able to witness them choke away that game vs. Denver then embarrass themselves on Monday Night Football in Green Bay. They really looked bad in that last game. I think there was a hangover from the Broncos game, however, and that Green Bay just played about the best game they could in that one. This isn’t that bad of a team. I think this is a potential playoff team, and if that’s the goal this one is probably a must-win. Ignore the records in this one and avoid the Bengals here for Week 4.

San Diego -7.5 vs. Cleveland: I do like this pick better than some of the larger favorites on the board. The Chargers are a better team than they have looked like the last couple of weeks. They are 1-2 on the year, but the losses were to Cincinnati and Minnesota, two possible playoff teams. This will be their second home game of the season after two straight road games. They just have the better team here, and I expect them to get the win to get back to .500 on the season. This is almost a must-win for a team with more realistic playoff aspirations than their opponent. San Diego is also on my short list of possible picks this week.

Green Bay -9.5 at San Francisco: Green Bay looks like the clear best team in the NFC. Along with New England, they look like the best team in the NFL. There are a couple red flags here for this one for me, however. The first is the short week since the Packers played on Monday Night Football this week. I think that will hurt them here. Also, this is a road game, and this is way too early in the season to pick road teams. Many Survivor Pool players who are still in their initial pool used Green Bay Week 1 at Chicago. The Niners looked really good in their lone home game this season, a blowout win over Minnesota, and they looked equally awful in their two subsequent road games. I think San Francisco will pull a couple more upsets at home this season. This probably won’t be one of them, but I just think that the Packers won’t play as well as they did on MNF on a short week heading on the road against a lackluster (on paper) opponent. This is a no play for me this week.

Denver -6.5 vs. Minnesota: This is a pick I won’t be using, either. I don’t think this Denver team, despite their 3-0 record, is as good as they have been the last couple years. I like the Vikings a lot in the underdog role this year. Minnesota is playing with a lot of confidence right now. I expect this to be a very close game, and the Vikings will probably be a part of my betting card this week plus the points.

Arizona -7 vs. St. Louis: Besides Green Bay, Arizona looks like the clear class of the NFC. They have made it look easy so far en route to a 3-0 start. The Rams are always that team, however, that seems to play their best when no one gives them a chance. Week 1 is a perfect example when they beat Seattle in overtime. Then once expectations went up, they reverted back to expected form in losses to Washington and Pittsburgh. Now that expectations are low, will it again be time to come up and bite a favorite? It’s possible. I think Arizona is playing a bit above themselves right now and that St. Louis is a dangerous underdog. That being said, I think the Cards find a way to win this and this squad will be in my pool of teams to consider for Week 4.

Seattle -9.5 vs. Detroit: Wow, has Detroit looked awful to start the season at 0-3. I thought they were a live dog last week at home against Denver. They were dominated in that game. There is definitely some talent here, however, and this team must be extremely desperate here on Monday Night Football because an 0-4 start means that the season is definitely over. I have used the Seahawks already in my Survivor Pool, so that makes this decision easy for me. If I had not used them, however, I would be extremely wary here. I don’t think the Hawks are the same team as they have been the last couple years and think they are playing a very desperate opponent this week.

Check back later in the week for more picks and Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool analysis. Sign up for our newsletter on the left-hand side of this blog for exclusive Week 4 Survivor Pool picks from three former winners delivered directly to your inbox.