2015 NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 3 Expert Predictions and Analysis

Black Sunday knocked out about 80 percent of the players in my pool to start this week, and Monday wasn’t any better as the Jets upset the Colts on Monday Night Football to knock out another 10 percent, including a couple cards from yours truly. Thankfully I play multiple cards and had one pick on Pittsburgh, so I’m in pretty good shape with 16 people left in my main pool. This just exemplifies why it’s important to play multiple cards. There has been a week like this in two of the last three years, and with parity running rampant in the NFL there’s a real opportunity to make some money in NFL Survivor Pools. Multiple cards give you multiple chances and can help you weather a tough week like Week 2.

I am really kicking myself for taking New Orleans on one card. I will accept the Indianapolis loss on two cards because that was my top pick. It was a bad pick. But I was very wary of the Saints in that game and had even bet on the Buccaneers plus the points. I should have stayed away and would have probably picked Pittsburgh on two cards. I would be in really good shape in my pool as the only person with multiple live tickets. Of course, hindsight is always 20/20. And even though I have played in these pools for years, I am still learning valuable lessons every week.

I was asked for advice on Twitter this week (@sppicks) if someone should gamble this week and take the Texans since everyone will be on the Seahawks and Patriots. I told that follower that now is not the time to get tricky. Remember, even though many pools have shrunk dramatically, it’s still only Week 3 and there is a long season ahead of us. There are two very strong picks this week. Just concentrate on advancing to Week 4 and let other people make those mistakes. Now that the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is clearly visible, it’s more crucial than ever to make sound decisions that will help you advance in your pool.

2015 NFL Survivor Pool picks Week 3 expert predictions and analysis

Three to Follow

Seattle vs. Chicago: Hello, Jimmy Clausen! This will be the Bears starter at QB since Jay Cutler is out, and Chicago WR Alshon Jeffery is very questionable as well. The Bears stink even with two of their best players available, but without them they are in real trouble here. There are two top picks this week, and I used New England in most of my cards in Week 1 at vs. Pittsburgh, so that makes my pick easy this week. Even if I had the Pats available, I would still go with Seattle here. Yes, the Seahawks are 0-2. But they were barely upset on the road against a Rams team that plays them well and then faced a Packers team on the road that had a big chip on their shoulders from the playoffs last year. Now they are back at home for the home opener in a building they play so well at in a desperate situation against a wounded Bears club. Some of those 0-2 teams like Indy and Philly have looked really bad. But I don’t lump the Seahawks into that same category. They are clearly the best of the 0-2 teams in my eyes, and I think they will destroy the Bears on Sunday. Kam Chancellor is back, this team is at home and against a very vulnerable opponent. This is the clear safest pick on the board in my eyes.

New England vs. Jacksonville: If I had already used Seattle I would have no problem taking the Pats here. However, I do think they are the second choice this week by a decent margin. While I agree with the Hawks laying two touchdowns, I think this line is a bit large (Pats are -13.5 at most sportsbooks). I could see this as a letdown game for New England. They have had two playoff-type games to start the season against Pittsburgh and Buffalo. Now the lowly Jags come to town. This is one of the biggest games of the season for a Jacksonville squad that won’t be in the playoff conversation, and a win here could be the highlight of their season. And I think this team is improved this year and not the automatic fade that they were in recent years. New England will win this game. I just think there is more of a chance here for an upset (maybe 9 percent compared to 3-4 percent for Seattle) than my top choice.

Houston vs. Tampa Bay: Another 0-2 team here on this side of the list. Houston hasn’t looked good thus far. But they are the clear better team here. I have always thought this Houston team is a 7-9 or 8-8 type team. Tampa Bay is a 4-win type of team, and they got one of those wins last week. Houston should play desperate here and they should get the win. But I advise you to stay away from this game with two better picks on the board. You at least have Seattle at your disposal or else you would be out of the pool.

Honorable Mention: New York Giants vs. Washington

Three to Avoid

Green Bay vs. Kansas City: I think the Chiefs are a really good team this season. I think they will make the playoffs and even possibly win the division although they put themselves in a hole by choking that game against the Broncos away last Thursday. But this team has had a lot of time off since that Thursday game. All media reports indicate they are mentally over the debacle against Denver. This team seems very unified and strong. Green Bay has looked as good as any team in the league thus far. But they are coming into this one with a lot less time off since they played Sunday night. And the Chiefs always seem to play well in this series. Remember the last time these teams played when the 7-9 Chiefs handed the Pack their only loss of the season? I think this is a close game, and no reason to pick Green Bay with those two top choices on the board this week.

Carolina vs. New Orleans: The point spread for this game has yo-yoed all week with the “will-he-or-won’t-he” status of Saints QB Drew Brees. Now reports are that he will indeed play here, and it seems as if the line has settled around 3. The Panthers have looked pretty solid so far, while the Saints have looked terrible. But if Drew Brees plays this week I think this game is basically a coin flip. And why would you want to put your whole Survivor Pool season on the flip of a coin?

Arizona vs. San Francisco: Arizona has looked like one of the best teams in the league thus far. But I don’t like this pick because this is a division game and a rivalry. The Niners will probably be a great fade later in the season once the losses start to pile up and the team loses confidence. But I think this squad is good enough right now to pull a couple upsets, and they will probably give it their all in the first divisional game of the season.

Honorable Mention: Denver at Detroit

Best of luck with your picks this week. Be sure to sign up for our newsletter and get free Week 3 picks from three former Survivor Pool winners. If you want to ask some questions for Week 4 we will answer them next week. You can e-mail us at nflsurvivorpoolpicks@gmail.com or ask us on Twitter @sppicks.