2015 Survivor Pool Picks: a Case to Fade the Tennessee Titans

My strategy for Survivor Pool success involves fading bad teams. Many players like to pick the best team for their weekly picks, but the problem with doing that is that you can use that team only once. But when you jump on the fade bandwagon on a really bad team then you can go against that team virtually every week (you can’t fade a team every week, of course, because all teams play division opponents twice). If you are correct in your assessment of a couple bad teams that wind up 3-13 or 4-12 then you are probably going to advance pretty far in your pool by fading those clubs.

One of the teams I plan on fading a lot this season is the Tennessee Titans. Try naming five starters on this team other than rookie QB Marcus Mariota? Most casual fans would have trouble naming three. This team is entirely void of talent on offense and has a lackluster defense as well. The rookie QB will have a very tough time this season as he will probably start from Week 1. Some rookie QBs have done well in their first year recently, but those teams had a lot more talent than the Titans do. It’s going to be a long year in Tennessee.

The Titans are the biggest long shot on the board to win the Super Bowl at 150/1 (odds courtesy of Betonline.ag). Sportsbooks like to limit their exposure on these futures and never post realistic odds for long shots. I would put their odds closer to 1,500/1. They are the longest shot on the board to win their conference at 80/1. They are tied with the Raiders as the longest shot to win their division at 22/1. They are tied for the lowest season win total on the Betonline betting board at 5.5 wins.

Let’s look at the Titans 2015 schedule and see which games will be good spots to fade.

Week 1 at Tampa Bay: Week 1 is so tough this season that the Bucs might actually be a decent play here. The biggest betting favorite on the Week 1 board is Green Bay at -5.5 at Chicago, and the Bucs are listed as 3-point favorites in this game. Even though both teams are likely starting rookie QBs here, I think Tampa Bay is well ahead of the Titans in terms of overall talent and Jameis Winston seems more ready to excel immediately (although I think both QBs will struggle this season). Expect the Titans to start 0-1 here.

Week 2 at Cleveland: I won’t be fading the Titans this week as the Browns will probably be a team I never use this year unless they play much better than expected and I am still alive in my pool Weeks 16 and 17. But Cleveland is better than Tennessee right now, and this spread will probably be similar to the Tampa Bay one at around -3 in favor of the home team. Cleveland won’t get many wins this season due to a tough schedule, so this is pretty much a must-win game for them. 0-2.

Week 3 vs. Indianapolis: Unless the Colts overlook this game this one should be blowout city. Great spot to fade the Titans. 0-3.

Week 4: Bye

Week 5 vs. Buffalo: This is the second game in a four-game homestand for Tennessee. But three of these games are against teams that will likely be in the playoff mix (Indy, Buffalo and Miami) and another that could very well be in contention due to their horrible division (Atlanta). I think Tennessee might win a one of these at home, and I would say this one is a possibility because I think it will be a low-scoring game, so maybe Tennessee can squeak one out, especially with an extra week to prepare off the bye. 1-3.

Week 6 vs. Miami: Since I gave them the win the previous week I can’t here. Miami looks to be pretty good this season, and if they Patriots falter they would probably be the favorite to win the division. If Tennessee loses to Buffalo then I would be very wary to fade them here. It will be very hard for the Titans to come out of this four-game homestand winless unless this team is 0-16 bad. And I don’t think they are that terrible. But this one should be a loss. 1-4.

Week 7 vs. Atlanta: I know I said the Titans would probably win one game on this homestand, but I think they get a win here too against a Falcons team I have a hard time finding inspiring this season. If the Titans go 0-3 in the first three games of this homestand then I will very much expect a Tennessee win. But I think this is a decent spot for them to get a home W this season. 2-4.

Week 8 at Houston: Houston is lacking offense big time this season, especially with Arian Foster out of the lineup, but their defense should be crazy good. And that should be enough to propel the Texans to a pretty easy win here as Mariota will probably be forced into a ton of mistakes. 2-5.

Week 9 at New Orleans: The Saints had a down year last season but are always tough at home. I expect them to be much better this season, and they have a QB in Drew Brees who will dominate the stat line over Mariota. This one should be ugly and a great spot to fade the Titans. 2-6.

Week 10 vs. Carolina: Even though this is a home game for Tennessee and the Panthers weren’t very good in the regular season last year, this is not a good spot for a win for the home team. I expect Carolina to win their division this season, and this will be a “gimmie” game for them in pursuit of that division title. 2-7.

Week 11 at Jacksonville: This starts a three-week slate of very winnable games for Tennessee. They play the Jags twice during this stretch, with a game against Oakland in the middle. Unfortunately, both of these teams are a bit further along in their rebuild than the Titans. Jacksonville squeaks out a win here. 2-8.

Week 12 vs. Oakland: I think Oakland will be decent this season even though it might not show in their record since they play in such a tough division and play the NFC North this year out of conference. But they should be better than the Titans, and this is a great spot for a rare road win for them. 2-9.

Week 13 vs. Jacksonville: Since these teams will have just played two weeks prior, I think the Titans might be able to get revenge here. Jacksonville will be better this season (this team had just seven wins the last two seasons combined), but it will always be a struggle on the road no matter how bad the competition. Titans win this. 3-9.

Week 14 at New York Jets: I think the Jets have a chance to be a 7-9 or 8-8 team this season, especially if they can get a win over the Patriots. New York is a much better club and at home, so they should get the win here. 3-10.

Week 15 at New England: The Pats should be in playoff mode by Week 15 and should be playing their best, especially if they struggle early in the season with QB Tom Brady suspended and have some ground to make up. I don’t see them overlooking Tennessee here. This one should be a blowout, and the Pats could be favored by 14+ on the Vegas betting line for this game. 3-11.

Week 16 vs. Houston: Even though the Texans are the better team, they may be out of playoff contention by Week 16 and may be due for a letdown in this game. I think Tennessee is capable of winning four games this season, so I will give them this one in an upset at home over a division rival. 4-11.

Week 17 at Indianapolis: There’s a good chance that the Colts could have the No. 1 seed in the AFC Playoffs wrapped up by this point. They may be resting starters. Even if that is the case, their backups are probably good enough to beat a Titans team that will likely be ready for the offseason by this point. 4-12.

Four wins seems like a pretty optimistic view for this team. If Mariota goes crazy in his rookie season they could be much better, but there’s a better chance he really struggles and this team wins only three or four games. For my 2015 Survivor Pool picks I always take my picks week by week and will handicap each individual week when we get there, but Tennessee is undoubtedly a team I will be looking to fade all season long.