NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 1: Updated Expert Predictions

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell upheld Tom Brady’s four-game suspension earlier this week. The Patriots actually opened as the largest favorite on the betting board for Week 1 (-6.5 points hosting Pittsburgh on the opening Thursday) and no doubt would have been a very popular pick in Week 1 Survivor Pools. However, that line dropped rapidly when the Brady suspension was first announced and was even listed at “pick’em” for a time before settling at around Patriots -2.5.

There has been talk that Brady’s suspension would be nullified or at least lowered to two games. But that is no longer the case, although Brady may look to the courts for a reversal. This suspension will be huge for Survivor Pool players who will be looking hard for a winner early season when there aren’t many viable options on the board, especially in Week 1 (the current largest favorite on the betting board is laying only 5.5 points).

That was just one development on the path to Week 1 Survivor Pools. Here are some other thoughts along with some picks and predictions.

Green Bay -5.5 at Chicago : The Packers are now tied with the Cowboys (-5.5 vs. New York Giants) as the largest favorite on the NFL Week 1 betting board. For those considering using Green Bay for Week 1, and there will be plenty of takers, the sharp bettors have backed that opinion and have bet enough to move the line ½ point. While that might not be a very significant line move, it is heightened in my eyes by the fact that the casual bettors don’t bet until the week before the season starts. So it’s all smart money getting down on Green Bay.

Still, I just get real scared by this pick. The Packers have won nine of 10 in this series against their most hated rival, and Chicago is probably due to pull one out sooner or later. The crowd will be crazy for the home opener. And it’s hard to justify taking a road team in Week 1. That type of hazard is normally saved until later in the season when choices are scarce. I am playing several cards in my main Survivor Pool this year and may throw one of them on Green Bay here because they should win this game. But I don’t have a great feeling about this matchup, but neither do I on any other game on the board. And it’s not easy to forget how awful the Packers looked in Week 1 last year (even though they were playing a much better team in the defending Super Bowl champs).

New England vs. Pittsburgh: This game has been taken off the board undoubtedly because of the drama unfolding in New England. With Brady out here, there is no way I would take the Patriots and they are on upset alert big time. Once the line shakes out I expect the Patriots to close as a slight favorite. While many Survivor Pool players don’t keep up with the NFL in the offseason, everybody knows about Brady’s situation, and there won’t be many outside of your random Chowder Head homer that will pick the Patriots in Week 1. I doubt many will use them until Brady gets back.

Denver -4.0 vs. Baltimore: This game has been getting pretty even betting action from the sharp bettors. It opened at this number and has flip-flopped back and forth from 4.5 to 4.0 as bettors weigh in on their opinion on the teams. I do like Denver a lot here (going against a possible playoff squad in Baltimore here in Week 1 – especially after the big upset win here in the playoffs a few years ago – is tough, but that just shows us the lack of good options). However, I expect the Broncos to take care of business here in their home opener, and as long as Peyton Manning escapes the preseason healthy this will probably be the peak of his health for the entire season. Denver is a better team than the Ravens with Manning completely healthy, and they are primed for a win here in the home opener in front of a rabid Denver crowd.

Dallas -5.5 vs. New York Giants: I don’t like this pick very much, either. The Cowboys, in my eyes, are always that team that seems to play well when nothing is expected of them, yet when expectations are high they normally crumble under pressure. So I don’t like them in a favorite’s role this year. This is a rivalry and divisional game, and even though Dallas had a great overall record last season they were only 4-4 at home. I think the Giants are going to be a lot better this year and would not be too surprised if they had a better season than Dallas. With a week as tough as Week 1 I have to think more about this one. Right now I am definitely leaning strong to not taking the Cowboys at all for Week 1.

New York Jets -3 vs. Cleveland: I’m strongly considering using the Jets in Week 1, at least on one of my cards. The Jets seem like a team to me that needed a change, and maybe the departure of Coach Rex Ryan creates a positive atmosphere in New York. They have a young QB in Geno Smith that has taken his lumps for the last couple of seasons and may be poised for a breakout. But this team will probably work with a very conservative game plan this season and will count a lot on its defense. I think Cleveland is in for another long year despite a defense that is underrated . Their quarterback situation makes what the Jets have look enviable, and they have a real tough schedule, including this very challenging game to open the season. I have a feeling if Smith looks good in the preseason that bettors might bet New York up above 3.0. I will certainly be watching the starting units closely for both of these clubs in the first three weeks of preseason.