NFL Survivor Pool Advice and Help: Types of Games to Avoid

NFL Survivor Pools are tough to win, no doubt, as you have to be the last man or woman standing out of a pool that is normally comprised of hundreds of competitors. However, there are certain Survivor Pool guidelines I use that have helped me successfully navigate through my pool on different occasions. I was about to type “rules” instead of “guidelines” there but thought better of it since these are etched in clay instead of carved in stone. However, like trying to avoid playing road teams, rivalry games and such, these are some of the types of games I like to avoid for my weekly Survivor Pool picks.

Thursday Night Games

Thursday night games in the NFL started in the mid-2000s. They were sporadic to begin with but are now a regular part of the weekly NFL schedule. Teams that have to play in Thursday night games hate them – and for good reason. It’s incredibly tough to play with only three days off after their previous game. Three days is very little time for injuries to heal and to game plan for the next opponent. Yes, both teams in a matchup are on level footing because both teams have the same lack of preparation time assuming both clubs played the previous Sunday. And home teams have traditionally done much better in these Thursday games. But the lack of preparation time creates too much unpredictability, and that is why we normally try to avoid picking teams playing in the Thursday games, especially early in the season when there are still plenty of options available from the pool of potential teams to pick from.

International Games

The first NFL game played outside of the USA was in 2005 when the Arizona Cardinals beat the San Francisco 49ers 31-14 in Mexico City. Now these international games are a regular occurrence each season, and it won’t stop any time soon as the NFL looks to take over the entire world. This season we will see three international games, all at Wembley Stadium in London: New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins on Oct. 4, Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars on Oct. 25, and Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs on Nov. 1.

For an NFL Survivor Pool contestant, all these international games provide is more uncertainty. First of all, when looking at a potential pick for the week, I try to choose mostly from the pool of home teams. In these international games, of course, there is no real home team even though one of the teams is listed as the official home squad (teams have to give up a home game in order to play internationally in hopes their city can eventually land a Super Bowl). I always factor travel into my NFL handicapping as there are certain situations that can provide a betting edge (West Coast teams normally don’t play well on the East Coast in a 1 p.m. start, ect.). The travel factor is crazy when these teams are travelling all the way to Europe. Yes, I know these teams travel first class all the way and aren’t stuffed in the middle seat on economy like the rest of us, but these trips throw players and coaches out of their regular routine, and that provides a lot of uncertainty for these games in my mind. I came back from a two-week trip to Eastern Europe a few weeks ago and my sleep schedule still hasn’t gotten back to normal. Jet lag is real!

When looking at potential picks for a week when there is an international game on the schedule, I normally cross those games off my list right away.

Teams Coming off Monday Night Games

Again, like the Thursday night games, this one also has to do with lack of preparation time. Not only do the teams lose a day of rest and game planning, but the bright spotlight of a Monday Night Football games can have a letdown affect the following week as that spotlight dims.

This can be a tricky spot for teams. While I won’t totally cross teams in this type of situation off my list altogether, I will normally go with a better matchup with all other things being equal.

Teams with Starting Quarterback Listed as “Questionable”

Injury reports are notoriously sketchy. The rules set by the NFL for injury reports are lax and allow coaches to manipulate the reports to gain an edge on their competition. That being said, if you are looking to play a team that has a quarterback that is listed as questionable on the injury report you will want to track that situation very carefully throughout the week. You can find media reports on if that QB has practiced during the week. If he has not, and your Survivor Pool deadline is on Saturday like with most pools, you will probably want to avoid this matchup since that QB is probably a game-time decision. The signal caller is the most important player on a team, and if he is out that creates a very bad situation for that team no matter who the QB is.

Monday Night Football Games

I listed this last because this is probably the least important of games to avoid. If I go far in my pool on a certain year I probably play at least one or two Monday Night Football matchups. However, for the same reasons listed in the last section, I may try to avoid the MNF matchup if there is another team I like that I am 50/50 on. Here at SurvivorPoolPicks.com we always preach to submit your picks at the last possible moment before the pool deadline as to monitor and best navigate injury situations. If you pick from the MNF game you are essentially losing a day compared to picking from a Sunday matchup, and with the present-day NFL, in which breaking news happens daily, you never know what is going to happen from a freak injury to a star player getting into off-the-field trouble or suspensions. Picking a MNF game puts you at a disadvantage in this aspect, and that is why I have listed it on my Types of Games to Avoid list.