2015 NFL Week 1 Survivor Pool Picks: Looking to the Future as First Week is Tough

Week 1 of the 2015 NFL season looks to be a doozy for Survivor Pool players. While the point spread isn’t the ultimate determinant of a strong Survivor Pool pick, normally the higher the spread the better chance that matchup has of advancing you in your pool. And the biggest favorite on the board for Week 1, according to the early betting odds, is Dallas laying six points at home against the New York Giants.

According to my research, favorites of 6.5 or fewer points avoided the upset at less than a 60 percent success rate. Compare that to 92 percent for favorites of 10 or more points, and you know just how tough this first week will be.

One positive about this challenging first week is that a lot of people in your pool should be eliminated quickly. Week 1 normally sees a mass exodus of players in the first couple weeks of the season, and we think that will be magnified even more this year with more parity in the league and some pretty even early-season matchups. That puts us in a good position if we do our research and make the best Week 1 picks possible.

The oddsmakers are not at their strongest early in the season, and the early odds will probably change. An important injury in the preseason can cause a dramatic shift in the odds. But it’s fair to assume there won’t be a favorite of much more than seven points for Week 1. Last season there were seven upsets in Week 1 out of the 16 favorites that played, and this season could bring even more than that.

Since Week 1 is going to be so tough, we decided to look down the road at the early-season schedules of the biggest favorites on the board for the first week of the season. While always recommend to use the best team available that week and never “save” teams for later, if you are 50/50 on two teams it always pays to look to the future and see if there is a better spot down the line to play that team. So that’s what we will do here for the Week 1 largest favorites.

Green Bay -5.0 at Chicago

The Packers have owned the Bears recently, but this is a tough one for Survivor Pool players. You always want to avoid taking road teams early in the season, and Survivor Pool contestants should always be wary of divisional matchups and rivalry games. Also, there will be some other good spots to take the Packers in the coming weeks of the season (odds from Cantor Gaming): Week 3 -5.5 vs. Kansas City, Week 5 -5.5 vs. St. Louis, and Week 6 -5.5 vs. San Diego. So judging by the Packers manageable early-season schedule you may want to hold this team in your back pocket if you are 50/50 with them and another team on this list.

Carolina -4.0 at Jacksonville

This one isn’t a rivalry game, but it’s a shaky pick just the same. Carolina is not only on the road as a favorite here, but this team didn’t even have a winning record in the regular season last year. The upside of using them as a pick in Week 1, however, is the fact that they have a very tough schedule early in the season and this is one of their most winnable games before Week 10 (at Tennessee). Unless this team far exceeds expectations, I can’t see another good spot to pick them all season except for maybe Week 11 hosting the Redskins. They do play Tampa Bay at home in Week 17, but most pools will be over by that point. Carolina is a good choice for those that want to gamble a bit in Week 1 because that will leave them with some nice options in their pool moving down the line.

Denver -4.5 vs. Baltimore

I like this pick the more I think about it. The Broncos were excellent at home last season and should have a fired-up Peyton Manning healthy and primed to go in what could be his last season-opening game in the NFL. This looks like a very winnable game for Denver. However, the Ravens are a team that is going to be in playoff contention and could possibly win 10 or more games, so it’s tough to pick against a team like that early. Also, there are some better spots for the Broncos early in the season, namely Week 4 -7.0 vs. the Vikings and Week 5 -6.5 on the road against the Raiders.

Dallas -6.0 vs. New York Giants

This is also looking like one of the better plays on the board for Week 1, and this is the biggest favorite on the board for early betting. Dallas was unbeaten on the road last year, however, yet they were only 4-4 at home. A team like that is hard to trust here and against a division opponent. Also, the Cowboys will have another game early in the season, Week 3 -5.5 vs. Atlanta, where they will probably be a larger favorite than -6.0 by the time the game kicks off assuming they look strong in their first couple of games.